Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$3.50 → $3.49 · observed estimates
UGI Corp (UGI)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.11-0.13%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.50 → 3.49 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UGI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain disciplined capital allocation and debt management | A primary condition in UGI Corp's published investment case. The stated target is Issue ~€300M senior notes and accept $175M and $468M tender offers in 2026-Q2. | Improving | Failure to complete planned debt refinancing and tender offers in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$3.50 → $3.49 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
UGI is a value-oriented utility business with a cheap valuation versus peers, but its earnings quality is fragile and management execution has been volatile. The multi-year view is still supported by progress on cash flow, debt costs, and reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance, though the current thesis state is watch.
UGI is valued cheaply versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are already subdued. The evidence describes the current pricing as justified and fragility as low, rather than showing that the market has overlooked a full set of execution and business risks.
Near term, the fundamentals are mixed: management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, operating cash flow improved, and debt actions are expected to reduce borrowing costs by about $30 million annually. However, company momentum fell sharply and earnings surprises have been trending down, so a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether UGI maintains its reaffirmed guidance and continues improving cash flow while managing debt. A lower-rate environment and continued strength among utility peers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker guidance or execution would weigh on the thesis.
For the next 1 to 3 years, UGI presents a cheap-versus-peers setup with tangible progress in cash flow and debt management, but fragile earnings quality and fading momentum leave the thesis unconfirmed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Sustain strong operational cash flow |
| A primary condition in UGI Corp's published investment case. The stated target is Cash from operations >= $664M in 2026-Q2. |
| Broken |
| Cash from operations falls below $664M in 2026-Q2 |
Cash from operations: $242M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $664M in 2026-Q2. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026242,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain profitability and grow EPS | A primary condition in UGI Corp's published investment case. The stated target is Adjusted EPS between $2.75 and $2.90 in 2026-Q2. | Intact | EPS falls below $2.75 in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.09B → $8.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.49 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.50 | $8,093,250,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.49 | $8,093,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.49 | $8,093,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.49 | $8,093,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.49 | $8,093,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.49 | $8,093,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.49 | $8,093,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.49 | $8,093,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.49 | $8,093,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.