UGI Corp (UGI)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.94+0.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UGI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UGI — private placement
Dated 2026-08-17
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 11, 2026, UGI Utilities, Inc. (“UGI Utilities”), a wholly owned subsidiary of UGI Corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Note Purchase Agreement (the “Utilities Note Purchase Agreement”) with certain persons (the “Utilities Note Purchasers”) relating to the private placement of $125 million aggregate principal amount of 5.45% Senior Notes with a maturity date of August 15, 2031 (the “Notes”). The private placement of the Notes is exem…
Why it matters: Closing this offering shows UGI can manage debt and fund operations. It affects cash flow and stability.
Supportive ifThe closing of the €300 million senior notes offering occurs on or about May 21, 2026.
Worry ifThe offering fails to close or is significantly delayed beyond the expected date.
Why it matters: Approval would allow a $65 million rate increase. This would boost revenue and profits.
Supportive ifPA PUC approves the $65 million rate increase by October 2026.
Worry ifPA PUC denies the rate increase or delays the decision beyond October 2026.
Why it matters: Management confirmed EPS guidance of $2.75 to $2.90. This shows strong earnings.
Supportive ifUGI reports adjusted diluted EPS within the guided range of $2.75 to $2.90 for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifUGI expects adjusted diluted EPS to be less than $2.75 for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if UGI's cash flow and EPS growth trends continue. This is key for investors.
Watch forUGI reports diluted EPS growth over $2.33. This shows strong earnings.
Also watch forUGI reports diluted EPS below $2.19. This shows a drop in profits.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$77 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $192 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,963 loss on $10,000 · 19.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New leaders can change how the company works and its stability.
Worry ifThere was a smooth transition with no issues in legal work or strategy.
Less concerning ifThere were big disruptions or legal problems from the transition.
Why it matters: Good debt management can lower costs and help stability. This is key for UGI.
Supportive ifUGI will finish the $125 million private placement of Senior Notes by August 2026.
Worry ifUGI fails to complete the $125 million private placement of Senior Notes by August 2026.
Why it matters: Warmer weather may reduce gas utility volumes. This could affect revenue and earnings.
Worry ifGas utility system throughput drops more than 5% year over year due to warmer weather.
Less concerning ifGas utility system throughput stays steady or goes up each year, even with warmer weather.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if UGI maintains profitability and cash flow growth. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifEarnings per share (EPS) growth is reported at 5% or more year over year.
Worry ifEPS growth is reported below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key for UGI's capital use and debt management. It impacts financial stability.
Supportive ifCash from operations was over $664 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations was below $664 million. This shows there may be operational problems.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps with spending and managing debt. This shows financial health.
Supportive ifUGI expects operational cash flow to be more than $664 million for the next quarter.
Worry ifUGI expects operational cash flow to be less than $664 million for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Enhancing cash flow is crucial for UGI's financial health. Strong cash flow supports growth and dividends.
Supportive ifOperational cash flow goes up by 10% or more from last quarter.
Worry ifOperational cash flow goes down or stays the same from last quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how UGI makes money and its cash flow. This affects investor trust.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) meets or exceeds the updated guidance of $2.75 - $2.90.
Also watch forEPS falls below the lower end of the guidance range.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps management focus on running the business well.
Supportive ifQ3 cash from operations is over $664 million.
Worry ifQ3 cash from operations is under $66 million.
Why it matters: The tender offer's success can affect UGI's debt and financial options.
Watch forA large part of the 9.375% Senior Notes due 2028 is tendered.
Also watch forA low percentage of the tendered notes are accepted for purchase.