Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$283.07+0.17%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $283.07. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $283 UNP trades at 24× p/e, below its 31× p/e peer median, but our blended $251 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $273–$315. Note: our $251 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($273–$315). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $308 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$273.00 – $315.00 (median $291.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-25
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 44% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 11.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $8.89/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $291.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $187.33 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $154.35 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $93.86 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $93.59 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $269.46 | 28.1 | 9.60 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $371.88 | 31.3 | 11.90 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $147.04 | 3.5 | 41.61 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $356.00 | 29.9 | 11.90 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $70.53 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $263.05 | 22.1 | 11.90 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $379.54 | 31.3 | 12.15 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $283.18 | 28.1 | 10.09 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $476.48 | 31.3 | 15.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $179.52 | 3.5 | 50.80 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $456.13 | 29.9 | 15.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $337.04 | 22.1 | 15.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $292.71 | 28.1 | 10.43 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $542.74 | 31.3 | 17.37 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $204.49 | 3.5 | 57.87 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $519.56 | 29.9 | 17.37 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $383.91 | 22.1 | 17.37 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.