Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$289.62+0.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UNP
How strong the business is — where it ranks within its sector on capital efficiency and cash generation, and how well management has been executing.
How this business ranks within industrials on a research-validated quality screen. As of 2026-09-04.
The screen ranks UNP against its sector on four durable signals: share dilution, return on capital, free-cash-flow yield, and FCF margin. Historically the highest-quality names tended toward better typical outcomes and fewer bad years over multi-year holds (strongest at three years, modest at one), and that pattern showed up even before the price moved. It characterizes business quality, not price direction.
Each leg is a sector-relative percentile (higher is better); 4 of 4 legs were available for this name. The composite is built from these four; the raw value follows each percentile for context.
A forward quality tilt, not a price prediction, and context for your own research rather than a recommendation. Not investment advice.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=9249).
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Advance the regulatory process and close the merger with Norfolk Southern to form a combined transcontinental railroad, unlocking synergies and enhancing service and competition.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management announced the merger agreement in 2025-Q2, targeting closing by early 2027, with expected $2.75 billion annual synergies and a combined enterprise value over $250 billion. The company reiterated readiness to advance regulatory approval and integration in 2025-Q3 and 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering as the merger remains a central focus.
“Looking ahead, we are prepared to meet increasing customer demand... ready to move forward in the regulatory process and deliver the benefits of America's first transcontinental railroad”
“We have a historic opportunity with Norfolk Southern to create America's first transcontinental railroad... focused on regulatory approval”
“Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern to create America’s first transcontinental railroad... targeting closing the transaction by early 2027”
Deliver reported earnings per share growth in the high-single to low-double digit range through 2027, consistent with long-term CAGR targets.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Diluted EPS grew from $11.09 in 2024 to $11.98 in 2025 (8% growth) and from $2.70 in 2025-Q1 to $3.36 in 2026-Q2 (24% growth). Management consistently affirms EPS growth aligned with the 3-year CAGR target of high-single to low-double digit through 2027. The trajectory is delivering.
Maintain and improve service levels to meet increasing customer demand, ensuring operational excellence and safety.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Operating revenue increased from $6.0B in 2025-Q1 to $6.9B in 2026-Q2 (+15%). Freight revenue excluding fuel grew 4% in both 2026-Q1 and Q2. Management consistently emphasizes meeting customer demand with strong service and operational excellence. The trajectory is delivering.
“Meeting increased customer demand with strong service; muted economic forecast”
Sustain pricing gains that exceed inflation to support revenue growth and operating ratio improvement.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management consistently affirms pricing dollars exceed inflation, supporting revenue growth and operating ratio improvement. While specific pricing dollar amounts are not disclosed, operating revenue and freight revenue growth support this focus. The trajectory shows persistent emphasis with supporting revenue growth.
“Pricing dollars in excess of inflation dollars”
Execute disciplined capital allocation including a $3.3 billion capital investment plan and consistent annual dividend increases.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management maintains a capital plan around $3.3-$3.4 billion annually with consistent dividend increases, evidenced by dividends per share rising from $1.34 in 2025-Q1 to $1.38 in 2026-Q2. Capital investments totaled $3.8B in 2025 and $1.8B in first half 2026. The trajectory is delivering consistent capital allocation discipline.
“Capital plan of $3.3 billion. Consistent annual dividend increases.”
Over the trailing year it converted 1.38x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=6654).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity (low R² over the window).
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2546).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-09-04.
“Reported earnings per share growth increased to high-single digit; consistent with attaining 3-year CAGR target of high-single to low-double digit through 2027”
“Reported earnings per share growth of mid-single digit; consistent with attaining 3-year CAGR target of high-single to low-double digit through 2027”
“Earnings per share growth consistent with attaining the 3-year CAGR target of high-single to low-double digit”
“Earnings per share growth consistent with attaining the 3-year CAGR target of high-single to low-double digit”
“Earnings per share growth consistent with attaining the 3-year CAGR target of high-single to low-double digit”
“Our safety, service, and operating momentum continued... we grew reported net income 5%, increased earnings per share 6%, and improved our operating ratio”
“Our 2025 reported net income grew 6%, earnings per share increased 8%, and we improved our operating ratio... focused on driving further safety, service, and operating improvements”
“Meeting customer demand with strong service; challenging international intermodal comparison”
“Our team delivered a solid start to the year... we will continue to execute our strategy that emphasizes safety, service, and operational excellence”
“Pricing dollars in excess of inflation dollars”
“Pricing dollars accretive to operating ratio”
“Pricing dollars accretive to operating ratio”
“Pricing dollars accretive to operating ratio”
“Capital plan of $3.3 billion. Consistent annual dividend increases.”
“Capital allocation: Capital plan of $3.4 billion. Consistent annual dividend increases.”
“Capital allocation - Capital plan of $3.4 billion - Dividend increase of 3%”
“No change to long-term capital allocation strategy - Capital plan of $3.4 billion - Share repurchases of $4.0 to $4.5 billion”