Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$308.53+1.68%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
14.20 → 14.40 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UNP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Strong service to meet customer demand | A supporting condition in Union Pacific Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain high service levels despite muted economy. | Intact | Service levels decline causing customer loss next year | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
UNP is a large rail operator with a steady-growth thesis, rather than a turnaround or speculative-growth story. The thesis is intact, with recent performance in the top half of its industry, though confidence in the evidence is medium.
Valuation is stretched, has risen recently, and stands at a modest premium to peers. Expectations are broadly aligned with the evidence, with a small expectations gap and low fragility, so the market appears to reflect much of the current operating strength.
Near term, third-quarter revenue carloads grew 6%, terminal dwell improved 2%, and workforce productivity rose 5% year over year. Diluted EPS rose 16% year over year, consistent with progress toward management’s growth target, while merger approval remains unresolved and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends in part on maintaining execution and avoiding a guidance cut, which would be a meaningful negative. Results and guidance from rail and industrial peers could either support sector momentum or weaken it, while regulatory progress on the Norfolk Southern merger remains unproven.
For the next 1 to 3 years, UNP’s operating progress supports an intact long-term thesis, but stretched valuation and sector weakness leave limited room for execution setbacks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Union Pacific aims for mid-single-digit EPS growth. |
| Improving |
| YoY EPS growth falls below 6% in FY26 |
Diluted EPS growth: 15.95% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY EPS growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 202615.946844 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful merger with Norfolk Southern | The merger with Norfolk Southern could boost growth and pricing. | Improving | Merger fails or faces major regulatory or operational setbacks | Merger progress: advancing (qualitative) UNP discussed merger progress at conferences; earnings beats and pricing strength support integration readiness. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Pricing growth exceeding inflation | A supporting condition in Union Pacific Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Pricing increases >4.25% inflation rate. | Intact | Pricing growth falls below inflation rate over next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Pricing dollars in excess of inflation dollars.” “Affirmed: • Pricing dollars in excess of inflation dollars.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$14.05 → $14.40 · observed estimates
$27.75B → $29.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $14.05 | $27,753,198,951 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $14.05 | $27,753,198,951 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $14.08 | $27,851,262,260 | 23 / 21 |
| 2026-07-27 | $14.12 | $27,853,023,060 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-07-28 | $14.12 | $27,853,023,060 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-07-29 | $14.13 | $27,870,833,789 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $14.12 | $27,853,023,060 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-07-31 | $14.12 | $27,853,023,060 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-08-01 | $14.13 | $27,870,832,898 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $14.12 | $27,853,023,060 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-08-03 | $14.15 | $27,920,056,317 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $14.12 | $27,853,023,060 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-08-05 | $14.15 | $27,920,056,317 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $14.15 | $27,920,056,317 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $14.15 | $27,920,056,317 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $14.15 | $27,923,827,240 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-08-10 | $14.15 | $27,920,056,317 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $14.15 | $27,934,170,140 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-08-13 | $14.15 | $27,920,056,317 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $14.15 | $27,920,056,317 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $14.15 | $27,920,056,317 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $14.15 | $27,920,056,317 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $14.15 | $27,920,056,317 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $14.15 | $27,920,056,317 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $14.15 | $27,920,056,317 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-22 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.17 | $27,955,844,126 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.18 | $28,178,652,588 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.18 | $28,178,652,588 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.18 | $28,178,652,588 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.17 | $28,204,056,013 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.17 | $28,204,056,013 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $14.17 | $28,204,056,013 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.17 | $28,204,056,013 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.17 | $28,204,056,013 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.17 | $28,217,127,441 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.17 | $28,217,127,441 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.17 | $28,217,127,441 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.17 | $28,217,127,441 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.17 | $28,217,127,441 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.17 | $28,217,127,441 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.19 | $28,092,175,060 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.19 | $28,107,069,098 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.20 | $28,161,307,193 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $14.20 | $28,161,307,193 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $14.20 | $28,161,307,193 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $14.20 | $28,160,651,366 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.21 | $28,249,426,090 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.22 | $28,273,898,815 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.22 | $28,273,898,815 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.22 | $28,273,898,815 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.23 | $28,333,258,350 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.23 | $28,333,258,350 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.24 | $28,362,163,112 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.24 | $28,362,163,112 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.24 | $28,362,163,112 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.25 | $28,444,236,763 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.25 | $28,444,236,763 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.25 | $28,444,260,572 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.25 | $28,444,260,572 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.25 | $28,444,260,572 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.27 | $28,519,598,358 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.27 | $28,519,598,358 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.34 | $28,850,757,701 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.38 | $28,919,805,320 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.38 | $28,919,805,320 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.38 | $28,919,805,320 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.38 | $28,919,805,320 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.39 | $28,995,120,918 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.39 | $28,995,120,918 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.39 | $28,995,120,918 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.39 | $28,995,120,918 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.39 | $28,995,120,918 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.39 | $28,995,120,918 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.39 | $28,995,120,918 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.40 | $29,010,800,081 | 17 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.