Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$289.62+0.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Union Pacific aims for mid-single-digit EPS growth. It beat EPS by 2.4% in Q1 2026. The merger with Norfolk Southern could boost growth and pricing. Rail volumes are rising, supporting higher earnings.
Merger uncertainty could hurt growth and cause operational risks. EPS growth is behind management's high-single to low-double digit target. Economic weakness may reduce customer demand and pricing power.
The price is about 13% above our fair value near $250. Analysts expect about 7% revenue growth. Our fair value is 14% below the Street median, which is more optimistic.
Breaks if: Service levels decline causing customer loss next year
Breaks if: YoY EPS growth falls below 6% in FY26
Merger fails or faces major regulatory or operational setbacks
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is a stable long-term thesis focused on a company undergoing a significant merger. The current state reflects a mixed outlook, with management priorities showing progress but facing sector headwinds.
The market currently reflects a neutral valuation for UNP, with expectations that are slightly above average compared to peers. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to immediate changes.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable as management continues to focus on achieving earnings per share growth and meeting customer demand. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with a low probability of missing expectations in the near term.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like CSX, NSC, and WAB, as their earnings results will influence UNP's trajectory. Additionally, any changes in guidance from UNP could significantly impact market perceptions.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. Union Pacific secured an agreement to reduce merger resistance from Canadian National. However, the merger process still faces uncertainty due to regulatory reviews.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Pricing growth falls below inflation rate over next year
Overall, UNP appears to be maintaining its position in a challenging environment, with key management priorities on track. Not investment advice.