Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$289.62+0.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UNP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
UNP — earnings in line
Dated 2026-01-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 27, 2026, Union Pacific Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Updates on the merger with Norfolk Southern are crucial for future growth and synergies.
Supportive ifGood news or approvals about the merger process.
Worry ifDelays or bad news about the merger process.
Why it matters: The merger is key to creating a transcontinental railroad. It could boost growth and efficiency.
Supportive ifRegulators approve or announce big progress before the end of 2026.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems with regulations. This pushes back the merger timeline.
Why it matters: Good service helps keep customers. It also helps make more money.
Supportive ifService metrics show improvement. They meet or exceed customer demand.
Worry ifService metrics are still lagging. This leads to unhappy customers.
Why it matters: Progress on the regulatory process is critical for the merger with Norfolk Southern. Delays could impact growth.
Watch forGood news about regulations shows progress on the merger.
Also watch forExpect more delays or bad news about approvals.
Why it matters: Pricing above inflation helps keep profits and supports margins.
Supportive ifPricing growth is reported above inflation rates in the next earnings report.
Worry ifPricing growth falls below inflation rates, squeezing margins.
Why it matters: Meeting EPS targets shows progress in financial health and growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ2 EPS growth meets or exceeds management's target of a positive growth rate.
Worry ifQ2 EPS growth did not meet management's target. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: Better service metrics show that Union Pacific is meeting customer needs more.
Supportive ifService metrics are getting better. On-time delivery rates are over 80%.
Worry ifService metrics are getting worse. On-time delivery rates are below 70%.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Union Pacific meets its EPS growth targets. This is key for investor confidence.
Watch forQ2 diluted EPS exceeds $2.93, indicating strong earnings growth.
Also watch forQ2 diluted EPS is below $2.87. This shows weaker earnings.
Why it matters: Approval is key for the transcontinental railroad. It will boost competition and change the industry.
Supportive ifThe Surface Transportation Board will approve the merger by early 2027.
Worry ifThe Surface Transportation Board denies the merger or delays approval a lot.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth may mean a recovery for Union Pacific.
Watch forSector revenue growth is speeding up to about 10% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Pricing growth above inflation shows Union Pacific can manage costs and keep margins.
Supportive ifPricing growth exceeds inflation by more than 1% in Q2.
Worry ifPricing growth is less than inflation in Q2.
Why it matters: Earnings growth is important for keeping investor trust and reaching long-term goals.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted EPS growth is reported at or above 8% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS growth is reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A better operating ratio means more efficiency and better cost control. This can boost profits.
Supportive ifOperating ratio drops below 59.5% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating ratio worsens to above 60% in Q3.
Why it matters: Steady freight revenue growth shows strong demand and good operations. This helps profits.
Watch forFreight revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year in Q3.
Also watch forFreight revenue growth falls below 2% year over year in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $224 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,228 loss on $10,000 · 12.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.