Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$297.95-3.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UNP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UNP — CFO transition
Dated 2026-10-16
CFO — Jennifer L. Hamann: The filing announces a planned retirement of the CFO with a transition period, which is an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of an executive.
Why it matters: High fuel prices hurt Q3's reported operating ratio by 140 basis points. Core cost gains may not fully offset that drag.
Worry ifThe reported operating ratio worsens year over year in Q4. Fuel prices again add at least 100 basis points of pressure.
Less concerning ifThe reported operating ratio improves year over year in Q4. Fuel adds less than 100 basis points of pressure.
Why it matters: Management says pricing gains will exceed inflation. Freight revenue excluding fuel rose 6% in Q3, but that figure does not prove the gap.
Supportive ifManagement says pricing gains topped inflation in Q4. Freight revenue, excluding fuel, still grew year over year.
Worry ifManagement says pricing gains matched or fell below inflation. Or freight revenue, excluding fuel, fell year over year.
Why it matters: Carloads grew 6% in Q3 as Union Pacific handled more demand. A drop in Q4 would weaken that trend.
Watch forQ4 revenue carloads grow at least 6% year over year, with terminal dwell at or below 19.9 hours.
Also watch forQ4 revenue carloads fall year over year, or terminal dwell rises above 19.9 hours.
Why it matters: Management raised its 2026 EPS growth outlook to high single digits. Q3 adjusted EPS rose 15% year over year.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 EPS growth lands in the high-single-digit range or higher.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 EPS growth falls below the high-single-digit range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$74 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $212 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,320 loss on $10,000 · 13.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: STB approval is a key step toward the planned merger. A clear ruling would show whether the deal can move ahead.
Watch forThe STB approves the merger without major terms that cut expected benefits.
Also watch forThe STB rejects the merger, delays its review, or sets major terms that reduce expected benefits.