Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Usio Inc (USIO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.00+2.39%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.10 → 0.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for USIO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capitalize on operating leverage to improve profits | Operating income improved from -$1.26M to $0.23M, showing better profits. | Improving | Operating income remains negative or declines in FY26 | Operating income: $376,913 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income turns positive and grows in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 2026376,913 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small-cap growth business with an emerging profitability story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is watch: management is on track with stated priorities, but the evidence is mixed and overall risk is high.
The valuation evidence points to USIO being cheap versus peers, while the model has low confidence and shows a wide expectations gap. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, but this does not remove the risk that investors expect growth and execution to continue.
Near-term results show strong double-digit revenue growth, higher adjusted EBITDA, and positive operating income in 2026-Q1; ACH and Output Solutions also grew in 2026-Q2. However, the business remains classified as loss-making, and consecutive earnings misses plus a 40% estimated miss probability make the next report a key risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on USIO sustaining its raised 2026 revenue growth guidance and turning operating leverage into durable profitability. A guidance reversal would damage management credibility, while rate cuts or stabilization among large technology companies could support the sector backdrop but would not resolve company-specific execution risk.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, USIO has evidence of growth and improving operating performance, but losses, high risk, and weaker results relative to its industry cohort leave the thesis unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “I am particularly pleased with our bottom line, which we have been intently focused on improving, where Adjusted EBITDA 1 was up 128% from a year ago and GAAP net income was approximately $0.3 million, or $0.01 per share.” “This strong growth, coupled with our fiscal discipline, led to a significant year-over-year improvement in the bottom line as well as positive operating cash flow, and a further improvement in our balance sheet and liquidity.” Operating income was $0.377 million in 2026-Q2.
Move from loss-making to positive free cash flow | A supporting condition in Usio Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Free cash flow turns positive within next 4 quarters. | Improving | Free cash flow remains negative beyond next 4 quarters | Free cash flow: $-828,172 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Free cash flow turns positive within next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 12, 2026-828,172 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve double-digit revenue growth in 2026 | Usio aims for double-digit revenue growth in 2026. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 18.62% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 202618.624557 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Consequently, based on our extremely strong first half of the fiscal year and confidence in our new business opportunities, we have raised our expectations for our top line growth, with full year revenues now expected to be up 14 to 16% compared to the prior year, an increase from the previously expected 10 to 12%.”” “The implementation of our Usio One strategy, our growing reputation in the payments industry, and the innovative technologies integrated into our diversified businesses are increasingly taking hold, providing us with confidence in our expectation of achieving another year of profitable, double-digit growth in fiscal 2026.”” Revenue was $25.466 million in 2026-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.06 → $0.10 · observed estimates
$0.11B → $0.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.06 | $105,397,359 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.02 | $105,397,360 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.02 | $105,397,360 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.02 | $105,397,360 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.02 | $105,397,360 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.06 | $105,397,359 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.02 | $105,397,360 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.02 | $105,397,360 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.06 | $105,397,359 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.02 | $105,397,360 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.02 | $105,397,360 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.06 | $105,397,359 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.02 | $105,397,360 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.02 | $105,397,360 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.06 | $105,397,359 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.02 | $105,397,360 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.06 | $105,397,359 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.06 | $105,397,359 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.02 | $105,397,360 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.06 | $105,397,359 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.06 | $105,397,359 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.06 | $105,397,359 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.06 | $105,397,359 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.06 | $105,397,359 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.06 | $105,397,359 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.07 | $108,076,648 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.10 | $109,554,197 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.