Usio Inc (USIO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.93-2.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · USIO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -84.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 15.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 99.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 24 industry peers
USIO — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders To the extent required, t…
Dated 2026-06-16
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders To the extent required, the information set forth below under
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin was 24.2%, below 25.8% a year earlier. Management said lower interest income and revenue mix hurt margins.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin is above 24.2%.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin is below 24.2%.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA rose to $1.1 million in Q2, up from $0.5 million a year earlier. Another yearly gain would back management's focus on higher profits.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is above $1.1 million and higher than Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $0.5 million or lower than Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Prepaid card revenue fell 10% in Q2 and 18% in Q1. Another drop would show this business is still weighing on growth.
Worry ifQ3 prepaid card revenue falls year over year for a third straight quarter.
Less concerning ifQ3 prepaid card revenue is flat or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Management raised its 2026 revenue growth goal to 14%–16%. Growth above 14% would keep the year on that path.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue growth is at least 14% year over year.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue growth is below 14% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$236 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $460 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,023 loss on $10,000 · 30.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Operating cash flow was $0.3 million in the first half, down from $1.1 million a year earlier. The next report can show whether cash flow improves.
Watch forThe Nov. 11 report shows positive operating cash flow for Q3 and first-nine-month cash flow above $0.3 million.
Also watch forThe Nov. 11 report shows negative Q3 operating cash flow or first-nine-month cash flow at or below $0.3 million.
Why it matters: Both units grew by more than 20% in Q2. ACH transactions rose 34%, while Output Solutions volumes hit records.
Supportive ifQ3 ACH revenue grows at least 20% year over year, and Output Solutions revenue also grows at least 20%.
Worry ifACH's Q3 revenue growth falls below 21%, or Output Solutions' falls below 22%. These were each unit's Q2 year-over-year growth rates.