Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Visa Inc. (V)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$436.57+3.84%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
17.07 → 17.13 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 20 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 20; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for V yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS at or above $3.14 next quarter | A primary condition in Visa Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3.14 USD per share. | Broken | EPS falls below $3.14 next quarter | Diluted EPS: $3.19 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=3.14 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q4. Oct 27, 20263.19 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
Visa is a large payments business with a relatively low-risk profile in this evidence, but management execution is rated volatile. The long-term thesis is intact: recent operating measures show growth, while delivery on newer products remains less clear.
The evidence labels current expectations as justified and fragility as low, with a modest expectations gap. It does not provide a peer comparison or enough detail to call the valuation cheap, fair, or expensive.
In the latest quarter, net revenue was $12.1 billion, while payment volume, cross-border volume, and processed transactions grew 9%, 14%, and 10%. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but the snapshot notes a recent miss and a history of a deep miss; litigation filed in September is also a risk, though its potential effect is not specified. Visa repurchased shares and raised its dividend, while evidence of adoption for its Visa as a Service products remains limited.
The multi-year view depends on continued growth in payment activity and better evidence that newer products are gaining adoption. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results from sector peers could support sector momentum. The snapshot also flags lower interest rates as a possible headwind for Financials, though it does not quantify the effect on Visa.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the business setup is supported by growing transaction activity, but execution on product innovation and the next guidance update remain important uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| New AI and travel services improve Visa's offerings. |
| Intact |
| No progress in AI or travel service enhancements over next year |
VAS growth low- to mid-20s% vs qualitative target Visa projects FY27 VAS growth in the low- to mid-20s% alongside strong core payments volume growth. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 13.6% per year | Visa keeps growing revenue about 13.6% a year. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 13.6% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchases of at least $7.9 billion in Q2 2026 | A supporting condition in Visa Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7.9 USD billion. | Intact | Share repurchases fall below $7.9 billion in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$17.07 → $17.13 · observed estimates
$56.17B → $56.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $17.07 | $56,172,237,893 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-10-02 | $17.07 | $56,172,237,893 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-10-03 | $17.07 | $56,172,237,893 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-10-04 | $17.07 | $56,172,237,893 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-10-05 | $17.07 | $56,172,237,893 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-10-06 | $17.07 | $56,172,237,893 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-10-07 | $17.07 | $56,172,237,893 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-10-08 | $17.07 | $56,172,237,893 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-10-09 | $17.06 | $56,165,580,616 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-10-10 | $17.06 | $56,165,580,616 | 16 / 26 |
| 2026-10-11 | $17.07 | $56,129,966,519 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-12 | $17.07 | $56,129,966,519 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-13 | $17.07 | $56,129,966,519 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-14 | $17.07 | $56,129,622,623 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-15 | $17.07 | $56,085,496,697 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-16 | $17.07 | $56,098,798,672 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-17 | $17.07 | $56,098,798,672 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-18 | $17.07 | $56,093,073,828 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-19 | $17.07 | $56,093,073,828 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-20 | $17.08 | $56,092,504,288 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-21 | $17.08 | $56,092,504,288 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-22 | $17.09 | $56,146,800,584 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-23 | $17.08 | $56,096,353,158 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-24 | $17.07 | $56,112,666,995 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-25 | $17.07 | $56,112,666,995 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-26 | $17.07 | $56,112,666,995 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-27 | $17.07 | $56,112,666,995 | 17 / 27 |
| 2026-10-28 | $17.12 | $56,257,705,702 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-10-29 | $17.16 | $56,550,264,947 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-10-30 | $17.14 | $56,561,174,450 | 19 / 21 |
| 2026-10-31 | $17.13 | $56,584,354,153 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-11-01 | $17.13 | $56,584,354,153 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-11-02 | $17.13 | $56,584,354,153 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-11-03 | $17.13 | $56,596,838,024 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-11-04 | $17.13 | $56,611,660,895 | 20 / 22 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 36 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 15 recorded
7 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.