Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$106.62+7.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve adjusted EPS of $7.05-$7.80 in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance $8.25-$9.05 vs target $7.05-$7.80.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide aims to grow contract sales to $1.8-$1.9 billion in 2026. The company targets adjusted EPS between $7.05 and $7.80 for the year. Free cash flow is expected between $375 million and $425 million. The stock trades at a low PE of 16.2 versus peers at 34.3.
Contract sales declined 2% in Q1 2026 and only modest growth is expected in Q2. The company missed Q1 EPS estimates by 23%. Free cash flow remains negative and profit margins face pressure. The sector is in a headwind regime.
The market prices the stock about 13% below our fair value near $116. Analysts expect 4% revenue growth, which aligns with management guidance. Our fair value is 23% above the Street median, reflecting optimism on margin and cash flow recovery.
Breaks if: adjusted EPS falls below $7.05 in FY26
Breaks if: contract sales fall below $1,760 million in FY26
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $375 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a cautious view on a company facing challenges in a turbulent sector. The current thesis state is one of watchfulness, as recent performance has not kept pace with peers, suggesting potential vulnerabilities.
The market appears to be pricing in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality, though the valuation is considered expensive compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap indicating that the market may not fully anticipate the risks ahead.
Management is on track with key priorities, such as increasing contract sales and achieving adjusted EPS targets. However, there is a mixed outlook on cash flow generation, and the near-term risk of missing earnings remains elevated, particularly given the high miss rate in the industry.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to maintain guidance without credibility loss, inflation trends affecting consumer spending, and the performance of sector peers like LVS and MGM. Positive momentum from these peers could support VAC, while unfavorable economic conditions could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, the next 1-3 years will be critical for VAC as it navigates these challenges and opportunities. Not investment advice.