Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$114.41-3.52%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.61 → 9.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VAC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EPS of $7.05-$7.80 in 2026 | The company targets adjusted EPS between $7.05 and $7.80 for the year. | Broken | adjusted EPS falls below $7.05 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
VAC is an execution-dependent business with growth supported by rising contract sales and adjusted earnings guidance. The current long-term thesis is on watch: recent results and guidance improved, but performance remains below its industry cohort and the signal has shifted to mixed.
The evidence calls VAC expensive overall, despite also describing it as cheap versus peers, so the relative valuation picture is mixed. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, meaning weak execution quality alone is not viewed as a full stack of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Near term, management’s 2026 contract sales and adjusted EPS priorities are on track, supported by higher guidance and year-over-year growth in the latest quarter. Adjusted free cash flow is a mixed priority, and erratic recent earnings surprises remain a risk despite a low stated miss probability. The recent earnings beat and muted reaction have not removed concerns about performance below the industry cohort.
The multi-year view depends on VAC sustaining its raised 2026 guidance without a reversal, which could damage management credibility. Cash flow delivery is another swing factor. Consumer Discretionary sector momentum may help if bellwethers LVS, DKNG, and WYNN keep beating and guiding higher, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, VAC has evidence of improving sales and earnings execution, but the thesis remains watchful because earnings quality is fragile, risk is elevated, and valuation evidence is mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Marriott Vacations Worldwide aims to grow contract sales to $1.8-$1.9 billion in 2026. |
| Intact |
| contract sales fall below $1,760 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Generate free cash flow of $375-$425 million in 2026 | Free cash flow is expected between $375 million and $425 million. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $375 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $66M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $375-$425 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202666,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.41 → $9.62 · observed estimates
$5.40B → $5.66B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.41 | $5,396,959,201 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.54 | $5,396,868,520 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.41 | $5,396,959,201 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.54 | $5,396,868,520 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.54 | $5,396,868,520 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.54 | $5,396,868,520 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.54 | $5,396,868,520 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.54 | $5,396,868,520 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.41 | $5,396,959,201 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.41 | $5,396,959,201 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.54 | $5,396,868,520 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.54 | $5,396,868,520 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.54 | $5,396,868,520 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.41 | $5,396,959,201 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.41 | $5,396,959,201 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.91 | $5,501,281,520 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.91 | $5,501,281,520 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.17 | $5,529,535,020 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.17 | $5,529,535,020 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.41 | $5,396,959,201 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.41 | $5,396,959,201 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.41 | $5,396,959,201 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.41 | $5,396,959,201 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.41 | $5,396,959,201 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.41 | $5,396,959,201 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.53 | $5,629,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.53 | $5,629,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.53 | $5,629,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.53 | $5,629,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.53 | $5,629,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.53 | $5,645,457,409 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.61 | $5,662,011,668 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.61 | $5,673,828,789 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.61 | $5,673,828,789 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.61 | $5,673,828,789 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.61 | $5,673,828,789 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.61 | $5,673,828,789 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.61 | $5,673,828,789 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.62 | $5,673,828,789 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.66 | $5,676,604,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.66 | $5,676,604,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.66 | $5,674,377,608 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.66 | $5,674,377,608 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.65 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.65 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.62 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.62 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.62 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.62 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.62 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.62 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.62 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.62 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.62 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.62 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.62 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.62 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.62 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.62 | $5,662,104,880 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.