Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$106.62+7.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VAC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VAC — President transition
Dated 2026-07-21
Executive Vice President and Chief Brand and Digital Officer — Lori Gustafson: The position of Executive Vice President and Chief Brand and Digital Officer is being eliminated, leading to Lori Gustafson's departure.
Why it matters: This will show if the strong growth trend from Q2 continues. It confirms the company's growth strategy is working.
Supportive ifQ3 contract sales were $550 million or more. This shows continued growth.
Worry ifQ3 contract sales fall below $500 million, suggesting a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows strong earnings and investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS guidance is confirmed to remain above $8.25.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance is now below $8.25.
Why it matters: This shows better cash generation. It also supports the company's cash flow plans.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow in Q3 exceeds $100 million.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow in Q3 is below $100 million.
Why it matters: Successful asset sales will support the company's cash flow and strategic goals.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement of asset sales over $125 million.
Worry ifNo asset sales were reported, or sales are far below $125 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$186 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $482 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,215 loss on $10,000 · 42.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This cash flow target is key for stability. It helps with future investments.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported between $375 million and $425 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $375 million.
Why it matters: This will show if the company has problems despite growth in Q2.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is less than $187 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is more than $187 million.
Why it matters: This earnings report will show how the company is doing. It also gives a future outlook.
Watch forEarnings report shows better performance than Q1.
Also watch forEarnings report shows drops in important performance metrics.
Why it matters: Exceeding this growth rate would confirm strong demand and effective sales strategies.
Supportive ifQ3 contract sales growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 contract sales growth is below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this EPS shows the company is still making money and doing well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS in Q3 meets or exceeds $2.31.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS in Q3 falls below $2.31.
Why it matters: Successful sales of assets would show good use of money and help cash flow.
Supportive ifThe company sells assets for more than $125 million.
Worry ifNo major asset sales happen by the end of the year.