Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.50+4.79%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.32 → 0.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VITL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex reduces to about $72.5 million | A supporting condition in Vital Farms, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$72.5 million. | Intact | capex exceeds $75 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $16.704M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$72.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202616,704,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a food business recovery story with elevated near-term execution risk, rather than a proven steady compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is addressing supply and costs, but the recent financial performance remains weak.
VITL trades at a sizable premium to peers, while the evidence describes expectations as broadly justified and the expectations gap as small. Valuation confidence is low, so the premium’s durability depends on evidence that execution and margins are improving.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses, recent peer misses, and a 56% estimated chance of another miss point to continued reporting risk. Revenue and gross margin fell sharply year over year in 2026 Q2, while management is cutting supply, costs, and butter operations; results have not yet shown a clear recovery. Fiscal 2026 revenue guidance remains at $775 million to $800 million after a prior reduction, and management reaffirmed it in August.
The key test is whether supply control, contract changes, and overhead reductions restore margin and volume growth while the butter wind-down proceeds. A guidance cut or further labor-market weakness would add pressure; stronger results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on a real operating recovery, but elevated reporting risk and weak recent results leave that recovery unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management aims to improve operating income from a loss. |
| Broken |
| operating income remains negative through FY26 |
Operating income: $-7.681M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: operating income improves to positive by FY26 end. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026-7,681,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete exit of butter products by end of FY26 | The company is cutting unprofitable butter products to focus on eggs. | Intact | butter product exit delayed beyond FY26 | Exit on track for FY26 completion Nov 3, 2026 8-K confirms butter discontinuation is on track for FY26 completion, though associated exit costs are being incurred. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $787.5 million | A primary condition in Vital Farms, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$787.5 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $755 million in FY26 | Revenue: $182.164M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$787.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026182,164,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.22 → $0.11 · observed estimates
$0.83B → $0.79B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.22 | $834,750,122 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.22 | $834,750,122 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.22 | $833,194,567 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.22 | $833,194,567 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.22 | $833,194,567 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.22 | $833,194,567 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.22 | $833,194,567 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.22 | $833,194,567 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.22 | $833,194,567 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.22 | $833,194,567 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.22 | $833,194,567 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.22 | $831,072,344 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.22 | $831,072,344 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.22 | $831,072,344 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.23 | $831,072,343 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.23 | $831,072,343 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.23 | $831,072,343 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.23 | $831,072,343 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.23 | $831,072,343 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.23 | $831,072,343 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.23 | $831,072,343 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.23 | $831,072,343 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.23 | $831,072,343 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.23 | $831,072,343 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.23 | $831,072,343 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.32 | $824,789,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.32 | $823,589,390 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.30 | $822,956,980 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.27 | $821,136,980 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.27 | $821,136,980 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.27 | $821,136,980 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.27 | $821,136,980 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.27 | $821,136,980 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.27 | $821,136,980 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.27 | $821,136,980 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.27 | $821,136,980 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.27 | $821,136,980 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.27 | $821,136,980 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.27 | $821,136,980 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.27 | $821,136,980 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.27 | $821,136,980 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.26 | $816,263,800 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.26 | $816,263,800 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.26 | $815,283,800 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.26 | $815,283,800 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.26 | $815,283,800 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.26 | $815,283,800 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.26 | $815,283,800 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.11 | $786,065,250 | 4 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.