Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.50+4.79%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VITL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VITL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 3, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 27, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Current Report”) and is incorporated herein by reference. The information provided in this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exc…
Why it matters: The company used $45.9 million in operating cash in the first half and took on new debt. Cash flow will show how much room remains to fund its plans.
Watch forA later filing shows positive operating cash flow over the next six months. It also shows debt below the $30 million reported at Q2 end.
Also watch forA later filing shows continued large operating cash use and rising debt from the $30 million Q2 balance.
Why it matters: Vital Farms cut its spending plan to match new capacity with demand. Spending above the range could put more pressure on cash.
Worry ifFY 2026 capital spending is above $75 million.
Less concerning ifFY 2026 capital spending lands between $70 million and $75 million, or below $70 million.
Why it matters: Vital Farms tied its sales outlook to a return to shell egg volume growth in the second half. Q3 results are due November 3.
Watch forQ3 shell egg volume grows year over year, and management keeps its $775 million to $800 million FY 2026 sales outlook.
Also watch forQ3 shell egg volume remains down year over year, or management cuts its FY 2026 sales outlook below $775 million.
Why it matters: The company plans to leave butter by the end of 2026 and focus on eggs. Completion would end the related exit work and costs.
Supportive ifVital Farms confirms it ended butter operations by December 31, 2026. It reports no new butter exit costs after Q4.
Worry ifThe company says butter operations will run past 2026, or reports more exit costs after Q4.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$214 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $638 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,816 loss on $10,000 · 78.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin fell to 6.6% as excess eggs sold at lower prices. A recovery would show the supply reset is easing that pressure.
Watch forQ3 gross margin rises above 6.6%, the Q2 level, as sales to breaker and wholesale channels fall.
Also watch forQ3 gross margin stays at or below 6.6%, or excess breaker sales continue to weigh on profit.