Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.92-1.78%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VITL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VITL — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 6, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Current Report”) and is incorporated herein by reference. The information provided in this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange A…
Why it matters: Changes in capital spending can show shifts in management plans. It shows how the company invests based on market conditions.
Watch forCapital spending plans are lowered to below $70 million. This shows a more careful approach.
Also watch forCapital spending plans are raised above $75 million. This suggests more investment despite market issues.
Why it matters: A negative adjusted EBITDA shows that there are problems with costs and pricing.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA is less than $0 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA is more than $0 million.
Why it matters: Exceeding 5% growth would signal a recovery in demand after recent challenges. It shows that the company's efforts to restore volume growth are working.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue grew more than 5% compared to last year. This shows good recovery plans.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is under 5%. This points to ongoing market problems.
Why it matters: Updates will show how well management is focusing on core egg products and costs.
Watch forManagement confirms the butter business wind down is on track with no further costs beyond $7.8 million.
Also watch forUnexpected costs come from shutting down the butter business.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$252 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $630 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,380 loss on $10,000 · 83.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA means the company is managing costs well. It shows how the company handles market pressures.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 is over $10 million. This shows good cost control and revenue growth.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is $0 or less. This shows that the company has ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Better operating income is key for the company's finances. It shows good cost control.
Supportive ifOperating income has a big rise from the last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income stays the same or goes down from the last quarter.
Why it matters: Growth would show recovery from the recent drop. It would support management's outlook.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenue shows at least 5% growth compared to Q2's $166 million.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue continues to decline or stays below $166 million.
Why it matters: Better margins would mean good cost management. It would also show recovery from oversupply.
Supportive ifGross margin improves from 6.6% in Q2 to at least 15% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin remains at or below 6.6% in Q3.
Why it matters: Staying in this range would show management is committed to careful spending.
Supportive ifIn Q3, capital spending is between $70 million and $75 million.
Worry ifIn Q3, capital spending is more than $75 million.
Why it matters: Progress on this plan would show focus on core products. It could lead to better margins.
Watch forManagement says the butter business will end by the end of 2026.
Also watch forDelays or setbacks in the wind down process are announced.