Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.92-1.78%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VITL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.92 VITL trades at 47× p/e — 2.8× the 17× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $9.79 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $10–$15. Note: our $9.79 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($10–$15). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $12.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $2.56 | 11.7 | 0.31 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $15.22 | 0.9 | 17.83 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $7.08 | 33.7 | 0.21 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$10.00 – $15.00 (median $12.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-08-07
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $3.66 |
| 16.8 |
| 0.22 |
| Triangulated |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $14.85 | 15.8 | 0.94 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $17.22 | 0.9 | 20.18 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $31.66 | 33.7 | 0.94 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $15.71 | 15.8 | 0.99 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $18.22 | 0.9 | 21.35 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $33.49 | 33.7 | 0.99 | Analyst | medium |