Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$48.73-0.14%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.41 → 0.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VRNS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow of $100M to $105M | Free cash flow should be $100 million to $105 million. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $100 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $20.7M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $100 million FCF in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 29, 202620,700,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business focused on SaaS and data security, with a long-term thesis that depends on turning expansion into stronger profits. SaaS growth is progressing, but the current thesis state is watch because recent financial performance is weak relative to its industry cohort.
VRNS trades at a substantial premium to peers, while the model describes the premium as durable and the expectations gap as small. The valuation tag is justified, but confidence in that assessment is low, and ongoing losses leave limited evidence that the premium is supported by profits today.
Near term, SaaS expansion and management’s raised free cash flow guidance are positive signs, though the full-year cash outcome is not yet known and the company remained loss-making in 2026-Q2. Recent performance is weak, and a reversal of the raised guidance would weigh on confidence in management’s execution.
Over the multi-year view, the key question is whether SaaS growth and newer security products can support better cash generation and reduce losses. Near term, guidance delivery matters; rate cuts and stabilization among major technology peers could also improve the sector backdrop, while recent litigation adds uncertainty.
VRNS has a credible SaaS growth story, but its premium valuation, operating losses, and weak relative performance keep the 1-to-3-year thesis mixed and dependent on execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Varonis Systems, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $731 million revenue in FY26. |
| Intact |
| Revenue falls below $731 million in FY26 |
Revenue: $189.461M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $731 million revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026189,461,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
SaaS ARR growth of 27% to 32% | Varonis aims to grow SaaS ARR by 27% to 32% in 2026. | Improving | SaaS ARR falls below $814 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.38 → $0.43 · observed estimates
$0.87B → $0.88B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.38 | $869,190,610 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.38 | $868,651,050 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.38 | $868,651,050 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.38 | $868,651,050 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.38 | $868,651,050 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.38 | $868,651,050 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.38 | $868,651,050 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.41 | $875,798,394 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.41 | $875,798,394 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.41 | $875,798,394 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.41 | $874,890,170 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.41 | $874,890,170 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.41 | $874,890,170 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.41 | $875,798,394 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.41 | $875,798,394 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.41 | $874,890,170 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.41 | $875,798,394 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.41 | $875,798,394 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.41 | $875,798,394 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.41 | $875,798,394 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.41 | $875,798,394 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.41 | $875,798,394 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.41 | $875,798,394 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.41 | $875,798,394 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.41 | $875,798,394 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.41 | $875,783,803 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.41 | $876,180,303 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.41 | $876,193,939 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.41 | $876,193,939 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.41 | $876,193,848 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.41 | $876,193,848 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.41 | $875,909,976 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.41 | $875,909,976 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.41 | $875,909,976 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.41 | $875,910,348 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.41 | $875,910,348 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.41 | $875,910,348 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.41 | $875,910,348 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.41 | $875,910,348 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.41 | $875,910,348 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.41 | $875,910,348 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.41 | $875,895,062 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.41 | $875,895,062 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.41 | $875,895,062 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.41 | $875,895,062 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.41 | $875,895,062 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.41 | $875,895,062 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.41 | $875,895,062 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.43 | $877,317,091 | 14 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 19 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 16 recorded
2 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.