Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.09-0.90%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VRNS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers
VRNS — officer change
Dated 2026-06-02
The filing describes a stockholder-approved increase in shares available for issuance under an equity incentive plan.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of demand for Varonis' services. A drop below 22% may signal weakening momentum.
Worry ifSaaS ARR growth for Q3 reported below 22%.
Less concerning ifSaaS ARR growth for Q3 reported at 22% or higher.
Why it matters: This cash flow target shows how Varonis makes cash. It also shows their growth investments.
Supportive ifQ2 free cash flow reported is between $100 million and $105 million.
Worry ifQ2 free cash flow reported is below $100 million.
Why it matters: If sector growth picks up, it could benefit Varonis. It would also signal a shift in the overall market environment.
Watch forSector revenue growth is reported above 5% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth is reported below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Non-GAAP operating income shows how well the company runs. If it drops below $2.5 million, it may worry investors about profits.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating income was below $2.5 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP operating income was $2.5 million or higher for Q3.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$186 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $468 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,811 loss on $10,000 · 68.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher growth guidance shows strong demand. It also shows confidence in the business.
Supportive ifManagement raises SaaS ARR growth guidance above 33%.
Worry ifManagement maintains or lowers SaaS ARR growth guidance below 28%.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it could hurt Varonis' performance. This signals a weakening market.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median for the last year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forThe earnings report shows less loss. It may also show profits again.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows more losses. It may also show a worse financial outlook.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key measure of business health. Falling below 18% could indicate weakening demand.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 18% for Q3.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth reported at 18% or higher for Q3.
Why it matters: Non-GAAP operating loss shows financial health. A bigger loss means more problems.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating loss was worse than ($1.0) million.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP operating loss was ($1.0) million or better.
Why it matters: New logo wins are crucial for growth. A lack of new customers could signal market challenges.
Supportive ifIn Q3, there were many new logo wins. These wins help boost revenue.
Worry ifNo new logo wins announced in Q3, or existing customers do not expand.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is critical for Varonis' financial health. Falling below this threshold may indicate demand issues.
Worry ifQ3 revenues were between $185 million and $188 million. This shows a growth of 14% to 16% from last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenues are over $188 million. This shows stronger demand.
Why it matters: New product momentum is key for growth. Slowing momentum could indicate market challenges.
Worry ifNew product revenue growth is less than 20% from last quarter.
Less concerning ifNew product revenue growth is more than 20% from last quarter.
Why it matters: New AI security products can drive growth and customer interest. Delays or lack of announcements may signal issues.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new AI security product or feature launch.
Worry ifNo new product news about AI security in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding growth. Falling below $100 million could raise concerns about financial health.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported at less than $100 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported at $100 million or more for 2026.