Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$48.73-0.14%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VRNS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VRNS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 3, 2026, Varonis Systems, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Report, including the press release, is furnished only, is not "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended,…
Why it matters: The company raised its 2026 free cash flow range to $105 million to $110 million. First-half free cash flow was $69.1 million.
Watch forThe next results keep full-year free cash flow guidance at $105 million or more and report no cut to that range.
Also watch forThe next results cut the full-year free cash flow range below $105 million.
Why it matters: The companies set a first-half 2027 closing window. A timely close completes the announced cash deal.
Watch forA company filing says the merger closed by June 30, 2027, and VRNS shares cease trading.
Also watch forThe deal remains open after June 30, 2027, or a filing says the merger agreement ended.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $468 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,356 loss on $10,000 · 43.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.