Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Verisk Analytics (VRSK)
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$211.47+6.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.69 → 8.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VRSK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete $1.5 billion accelerated share repurchase program | A supporting condition in Verisk Analytics's published investment case. The stated target is $1.5 billion completed. | Intact | Buyback program is delayed or canceled in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a data-driven growth business with robust earnings quality, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view is intact, although recent financial performance is neutral and overall risk is elevated.
Valuation is above peers, with a 1.2 premium, while the evidence describes expectations as broadly justified and aligned with fundamentals. The expectations gap is modestly negative, and valuation has risen recently, so the market appears to recognize the business’s progress without the snapshot showing a large expectations cushion.
Near-term results show revenue rising to $806.3 million in 2026-Q2, and full-year revenue guidance was reaffirmed in July. Operating income has also increased over the periods provided, consistent with progress on cost discipline, but the evidence does not establish that data and AI investment has driven results. Near-term risk is assessed as low for a miss, though recent peer misses and a sector headwind warrant attention.
The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would weaken the near-term case, while continued delivery against the reaffirmed outlook would support it. Over the multi-year view, execution on growth, innovation, and cost discipline matters, while results and guidance from industrial bellwethers such as BA, CAT, and UNP may signal whether sector conditions are improving or worsening.
For the next 1 to 3 years, VRSK’s long-term thesis rests on continued growth and operating improvement, but its above-peer valuation and sector headwind leave meaningful execution and industry risks. The thesis is intact in this snapshot, with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Recent acquisitions strengthen its data analytics edge. |
| Intact |
| AI commoditizes data analytics, eroding pricing power |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Dividend increased to $2.00 per share in 2026 | The company returns value with a $1.5B share buyback and a $2.00 dividend. | Intact | Dividend cut or fails to reach $2.00 in 2026 | Dividend per share: $0.50 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $2.00 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 29, 20260.5 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Non-GAAP EPS near $7.60 in 2026 | Profit per share is expected around $7.60. | Intact | Non-GAAP EPS falls below $7.00 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue near $3.2 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Verisk Analytics's published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.215 billion. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $3.05 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $806.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.215 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 29, 2026806,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.67 → $8.70 · observed estimates
$3.44B → $3.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.67 | $3,441,624,198 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.67 | $3,442,976,710 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.67 | $3,442,976,710 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.67 | $3,442,976,710 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.67 | $3,442,976,710 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.67 | $3,442,976,710 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.69 | $3,440,246,736 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.68 | $3,438,847,510 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.68 | $3,436,766,636 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.69 | $3,435,585,129 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.69 | $3,438,847,510 | 19 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.69 | $3,435,585,129 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.69 | $3,440,003,760 | 19 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.69 | $3,440,003,760 | 19 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.69 | $3,436,747,629 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.70 | $3,438,822,260 | 19 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.69 | $3,436,747,629 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.70 | $3,438,822,260 | 19 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.69 | $3,436,747,629 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.69 | $3,436,747,629 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.69 | $3,436,747,629 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.69 | $3,436,747,629 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.69 | $3,436,747,629 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.69 | $3,436,747,629 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.69 | $3,436,747,629 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.69 | $3,436,270,292 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.69 | $3,436,264,042 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.69 | $3,436,128,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.69 | $3,435,797,629 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.69 | $3,435,797,629 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.69 | $3,435,797,629 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.69 | $3,435,828,879 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.69 | $3,435,770,826 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.70 | $3,436,683,326 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.70 | $3,436,683,326 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.70 | $3,436,683,326 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.70 | $3,436,683,326 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.70 | $3,436,683,326 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.70 | $3,435,745,826 | 12 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.