Verisk Analytics (VRSK)
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$185.79-2.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Verisk Analytics grows revenue about 7% yearly, guided near $3.2B in 2026. Profit per share is expected around $7.60. The company returns value with a $1.5B share buyback and a $2.00 dividend. Recent acquisitions strengthen its data analytics edge.
AI may weaken Verisk's data moat, making its analytics less unique. Revenue growth is modest and could stall near 3-4%. Share buybacks and dividends may limit reinvestment in growth.
The price is about 13% below our fair value near $223. Analysts expect roughly 7% revenue growth, which aligns with our view. The market fairly prices steady growth but not strong acceleration.
Breaks if: Buyback program is delayed or canceled in 2026
Breaks if: AI commoditizes data analytics, eroding pricing power
Dividend cut or fails to reach $2.00 in 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder in the Industrials sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong earnings quality and a commitment to financial guidance.
The market currently reflects a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly below what is justified. VRSK trades at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that some growth is already priced in.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable as management has reaffirmed financial guidance and is executing on share repurchases. However, there is an elevated risk due to recent misses in the industry, which could impact VRSK's performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like BA, CAT, and UNP. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support VRSK's growth; conversely, any negative guidance from them could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the read. However, legal issues and a court ruling threaten growth plans. These factors create uncertainty around future performance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain and increase dividend payments to $2.00 per share for the full year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management increased quarterly dividends from $0.45 in 2025-Q4 to $0.50 in 2026-Q1 and Q2, consistent with the $2.00 per share annual guidance. Dividend payments have been delivered as committed.
“Paid a cash dividend of 50 cents per share on June 30, 2026.”
“Paid a cash dividend of 50 cents per share on March 31, 2026.”
“Dividend per share guidance for 2026 is $2.00.”
Breaks if: Non-GAAP EPS falls below $7.00 in FY26
Maintain and reaffirm full-year 2026 financial guidance including revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and diluted adjusted EPS targets.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed 2026 full-year guidance with revenue between $3,190M and $3,240M and diluted adjusted EPS between $7.45 and $7.75. Actual revenue grew from $753M in 2026-Q1 to $806M in 2026-Q2, consistent with guidance. The trajectory matches management's stated commitment to delivering on 2026 financial targets.
“We are reaffirming our financial guidance for 2026.”
“We are reaffirming our financial guidance for 2026.”
“We are reaffirming our financial guidance for 2026.”
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $3.05 billion in FY26
Maintain and reaffirm full-year 2026 financial guidance including revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and diluted adjusted EPS targets.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed 2026 full-year guidance with revenue between $3,190M and $3,240M and diluted adjusted EPS between $7.45 and $7.75. Actual revenue grew from $753M in 2026-Q1 to $806M in 2026-Q2, consistent with guidance. The trajectory matches management's stated commitment to delivering on 2026 financial targets.
“We are reaffirming our financial guidance for 2026.”
“We are reaffirming our financial guidance for 2026.”
“We are reaffirming our financial guidance for 2026.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, VRSK's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges while maintaining its financial commitments. Not investment advice.