Verisk Analytics (VRSK)
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$211.47+6.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VRSK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VRSK — officer change
Dated 2026-09-08
Chief Human Relations Officer — Sunita Holzer: The filing announces the retirement of a senior officer (CHRO) with a plan to identify a successor, representing an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA grew 7.4% OCC, while its margin was 57.5%. More growth with a steady margin would show cost discipline is holding.
Supportive ifQ3 OCC adjusted EBITDA growth is at least 7.4%, and the reported margin is at least 57.5%.
Worry ifQ3 OCC adjusted EBITDA growth is below 5.9%, the Q1 rate, or the margin falls below 56.0%, the low end of the 2026 outlook.
Why it matters: The deal still needs FTC review and other closing conditions. A clear decision would settle whether the transaction can close.
Watch forVerisk reports FTC clearance and says all other closing conditions are met.
Also watch forThe FTC blocks or challenges the deal, or Verisk says a closing condition failed or the deal is terminated.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue grew 5.8% on an OCC basis. Faster growth would support management's view that growth is returning to long-term target levels.
Supportive ifOn November 5, Verisk reports Q3 OCC revenue growth above 5.8%.
Worry ifQ3 OCC revenue growth is below 4.7%, the Q1 rate, or Verisk cuts its 2026 revenue outlook below $3.19 billion.
Why it matters: Q2 claims revenue grew 6.1% OCC, led in part by anti-fraud and property solutions. A higher rate would show this growth held up.
Supportive ifQ3 claims revenue growth is above 6.1% OCC.
Worry ifQ3 claims revenue growth is below 3.4% OCC, the Q1 rate.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$129 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $337 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,008 loss on $10,000 · 30.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 free cash flow rose 57.9%, in part due to the timing of vendor and tax payments. A sustained gain would show stronger cash generation.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow is above $298 million, and Verisk does not cite payment timing as the main reason.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow is below $298 million, or Verisk says payment timing drove most of the year-over-year change.
Why it matters: Q2 net income fell 9.8% as taxes, interest costs, and legal fees rose. A return to growth would ease that pressure.
Supportive ifQ3 net income is higher than the Q3 2025 result.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls year over year again, and Verisk cites higher taxes, interest costs, or legal fees.