Verisk Analytics (VRSK)
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$185.79-2.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VRSK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VRSK — CIO transition
Dated 2026-07-28
Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer — Nick Daffan: Nick Daffan is transitioning to a Strategic Advisor role and will be succeeded by Jeff Negrete as interim Chief Information Officer.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend increase means the company is doing well. It also shows they plan to return money to investors.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the annual dividend of $2.00 per share.
Worry ifManagement does not confirm the annual dividend of $2.00 per share.
Why it matters: A big drop in free cash flow may show operational problems and affect capital use.
Worry ifQ2 free cash flow declines more than 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 free cash flow declines less than 15% year over year or grows.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend shows the company is in good shape. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company pays the dividend of $0.50 per share as scheduled on September 30, 2026.
Worry ifThe company will pause or cut the dividend payment set for September 30, 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing this program may show good use of funds and returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe ASR program is fully executed by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe ASR program is not completed by the end of Q3 2026.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $327 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,219 loss on $10,000 · 42.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The tax rate changes net income and earnings. A big change can affect profits.
Worry ifThe effective tax rate in Q3 is higher than 26%.
Less concerning ifThe effective tax rate in Q3 is lower than 23%.
Why it matters: Keeping strong free cash flow helps with investments and paying shareholders.
Supportive ifIf Q2 free cash flow is over $300 million, it shows good cash generation.
Worry ifFree cash flow under $300 million could raise worries about how well the company runs.
Why it matters: A big drop could mean serious problems with profits or managing costs.
Worry ifQ3 net income declines more than 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income remains stable or grows year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth is low, it may mean less demand or problems in operations.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth prints below 4.3% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 4.3% year over year.
Why it matters: This growth rate would indicate that Verisk is on track to meet its 2026 revenue guidance.
Supportive ifIf Q2 revenue grows by 4.5% or more, it shows strong operations.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth below 4.5% could signal ongoing challenges in achieving growth targets.
Why it matters: A drop could mean operational problems and hurt future cash flow.
Worry ifNet cash from operating activities falls more than 12.2% in Q2.
Less concerning ifNet cash from operating activities rises or falls less than 12.2%.
Why it matters: Completing this program would show strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders. It may also support share price.
Supportive ifThey will announce the end of the $1.5 billion Share Repurchase Program.
Worry ifNo announcement of completion by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to Verisk's financial health. A drop signals potential issues.
Worry ifQ2 organic constant currency revenue growth was below 4.7%.
Less concerning ifQ2 organic constant currency revenue growth was at or above 4.7%.
Why it matters: Hitting this growth target shows that management believes in their financial plans for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth on an OCC basis meets or exceeds 5.8%.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth on an OCC basis falls below 5.0%.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating this EPS shows good performance and backs up management's guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted adjusted EPS meets or exceeds $1.98.
Worry ifQ3 diluted adjusted EPS falls below $1.80.