Vitesse Energy, Inc. (VTS)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.78+2.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS reaches at least $0.21 in 2026: Q2 FY26 EPS $0.04 vs $0.21 target.
Vitesse aims to keep capital spending between $50M and $80M in 2026. It plans to produce 16,000 to 17,500 barrels per day this year. Analysts expect earnings per share to rise to $0.21 in 2026. The company recently acquired new assets to boost production.
Vitesse is losing money and has missed earnings several times. Its share price dropped 17.5% from its high. Revenue growth is expected to be flat or negative. Capital spending was cut sharply from 2025 to 2026.
The price is about 44% below our fair value of $28. Analysts expect no revenue growth next year. The market reflects weak near-term results and risks.
Breaks if: CAPEX exceeds $80M or falls below $50M in FY26
Vitesse aims to keep its capital expenditures between $50 and $80 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.21 in FY26
Breaks if: production falls below 16,000 Boe/day in FY26
Target annual production in the range of 16,000 to 17,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the full year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management set 2026 production guidance initially at 16,000 - 17,500 Boe/d and revised it slightly narrower to 16,300 - 17,200 Boe/d after Q2. Actual production in Q2 2026 was 17,354 Boe/d, slightly above the revised guidance range, indicating delivery consistent with the stated priority.
“Vitesse tightened its 2026 annual guidance: Annual Production (Boe per day) 16,300 - 17,200”
“2026 annual guidance: Annual Production (Boe per day) 16,000 - 17,500”
“Vitesse expects production on a two-stream basis to be in the range of 16,000 - 17,500 Boe per day for 2026.”
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, but recent earnings performance has been neutral, indicating potential challenges ahead.
The market appears to have priced in a stretched valuation, reflecting a durable premium compared to peers. However, there is a low fragility tier, suggesting that the current expectations may not fully account for potential volatility in the sector.
Fundamentals are likely to remain mixed in the near term, with a 65% probability of an earnings miss looming over the next quarter. Management has shown a focus on disciplined capital allocation and production targets, but recent performance has been inconsistent.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for inflation to reaccelerate and the performance of sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY. Additionally, any significant changes in guidance from VTS could impact credibility and investor sentiment.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, VTS faces a complex landscape with both opportunities and risks. The situation requires close monitoring of sector trends and management execution. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The CEO emphasized a commitment to maintaining dividends. However, the latest earnings miss raises concerns about future performance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.