Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Vitesse Energy, Inc. (VTS)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.67-5.05%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.14 → 0.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VTS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Keep capital spending within $50M-$80M in 2026 | Vitesse aims to keep capital spending between $50M and $80M in 2026. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $80M or falls below $50M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $21.087M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $50M to $80M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 202621,087,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
VTS is a production-growth energy business with a sector tailwind, rather than a proven earnings compounder, since it is currently loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, but its signal has recently shifted from mixed to cautious and the next-quarter earnings risk is elevated.
VTS is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium in the valuation evidence. The priced-in assessment is labeled justified, and the evidence points to a modest expectations gap rather than a clearly fragile setup.
In the near term, consecutive earnings misses raise the risk of another miss, despite an earnings-in-line report in August. In the multi-year view, Q2 production rose 9% sequentially after the Powder River Basin acquisition, while management narrowed its production guidance and raised the lower end of its capital spending range.
The thesis depends on management sustaining production and integrating the acquired assets while keeping spending controlled. Near term, a guidance cut after the recent increase would weaken confidence; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from energy bellwethers such as COP, EOG, and OXY would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from them could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, VTS has a supportive sector backdrop and evidence of production growth, but its loss-making status, elevated risk of another earnings miss, and expensive valuation leave execution as the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Analysts expect earnings per share to rise to $0.21 in 2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $0.21 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.86 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.21 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 2026-0.86 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve production of 16,000-17,500 Boe per day in 2026 | It plans to produce 16,000 to 17,500 barrels per day this year. | Intact | production falls below 16,000 Boe/day in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.86 → $0.22 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.30B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.86 | $274,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.86 | $274,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.86 | $274,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.28 | $262,323,400 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.86 | $274,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.28 | $262,323,400 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.28 | $262,323,400 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.28 | $262,323,400 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.28 | $262,323,400 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.28 | $262,323,400 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.28 | $262,323,400 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.86 | $274,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.86 | $274,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.86 | $274,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.74 | $278,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.74 | $278,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.27 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.26 | $260,974,033 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.25 | $282,905,525 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.25 | $282,905,525 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.15 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.15 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.15 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.15 | $291,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.15 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.15 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.15 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.15 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.15 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.15 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.15 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.15 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.15 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.14 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.14 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.14 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.14 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.14 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.14 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.14 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.14 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.13 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.13 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.13 | $291,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.17 | $296,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.17 | $296,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.17 | $296,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.17 | $296,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.17 | $296,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.20 | $299,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.20 | $299,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.20 | $299,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.20 | $299,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.20 | $299,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.20 | $299,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.20 | $299,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.20 | $299,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.20 | $299,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.20 | $299,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.20 | $299,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.20 | $299,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.20 | $299,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.20 | $299,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.22 | $298,225,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.