Vitesse Energy, Inc. (VTS)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.78+2.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VTS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VTS — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-03
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, (the “Securities Act”) or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a…
Why it matters: What management says about hedging can affect future cash flow and dividends.
Watch forManagement talks about successful hedging that keeps cash flow steady.
Also watch forManagement highlights challenges in hedging that could impact cash flows.
Why it matters: Better earnings would show recovery and better control of costs and revenue.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings show a smaller net loss than Q1's $42.3 million.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report a larger net loss than Q1's $42.3 million.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps pay dividends and allocate capital. This shows financial health.
Supportive ifQ2 cash flow from operations reported above $24 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $24 million.
Why it matters: Regular dividend payments build trust with investors. They also show financial health.
Supportive ifThe dividend declared remains at $0.4375 per share.
Worry ifThe dividend announced is cut or stopped.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$110 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $331 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,767 loss on $10,000 · 37.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Vitesse is performing. A miss could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifEarnings report shows a profit or meets expectations.
Less concerning ifEarnings report shows a loss or misses expectations again.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good control of spending. This is important for keeping dividends.
Supportive ifTotal cash capital spending was between $65 and $80 million.
Worry ifTotal cash capital spending was above $80 million.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth means the company is doing well. It also helps the sector.
Supportive ifRevenue growth turns positive, exceeding 2% year over year in the next earnings report.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 2% year over year in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Stable or rising prices help revenue and cash flow. This is important for keeping dividends.
Watch forWTI crude oil prices stabilize above $70 per barrel.
Also watch forWTI crude oil prices drop below $60 per barrel.
Why it matters: A stable or increasing realized oil price supports revenue and cash flow. It reflects the effectiveness of hedging strategies.
Supportive ifAverage realized oil price reported above $65 per Bbl for Q3.
Worry ifAverage realized oil price falls below $60 per Bbl for Q3.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows Vitesse is managing its investments well. It impacts future growth.
Supportive ifCAPEX reported for 2026 remains between $50 million and $80 million.
Worry ifCAPEX exceeds $80 million or drops below $50 million.
Why it matters: Good integration can boost production and revenue, helping growth.
Supportive ifManagement says the integration is going well. Production has gotten better.
Worry ifIntegration problems lead to delays in production. They can also raise costs.
Why it matters: Good integration will help Vitesse grow and make more money.
Supportive ifManagement says they are making good progress with the acquisition.
Worry ifManagement says there are problems or delays with the integration.
Why it matters: Keeping this dividend level shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifQ3 dividend declared at $0.4375 per share.
Worry ifQ3 dividend declared below $0.4375 per share.
Why it matters: Staying above this level shows Vitesse is growing after the acquisition.
Supportive ifQ3 production exceeds 16,300 Boe per day, confirming growth from the Powder River Basin assets.
Worry ifQ3 production is below 16,300 Boe per day. This shows integration or production problems.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows Vitesse is managing its spending while pursuing growth.
Supportive ifQ3 cash capital spending is $65-$80 million. This shows careful spending of money.
Worry ifQ3 cash capital spending is over $80 million. This suggests a change in spending.