Vitesse Energy, Inc. (VTS)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$15.00+2.25%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VTS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VTS — earnings in line
Dated 2026-11-02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, (the “Securities Act”) or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a…
Why it matters: Vitesse raised its spending range after Q2. Spending above the new ceiling could weaken its focus on capital control.
Worry ifVitesse raises its 2026 cash spending cap above $80 million or reports spending above $80 million.
Less concerning ifVitesse keeps 2026 cash capital spending at or below $80 million.
Why it matters: Vitesse reported $16.3 million in free cash flow in Q2. Cash flow below the dividend cost would test its payout plan.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow is below the cash needed for the $0.4375 per-share dividend.
Less concerning ifQ3 free cash flow meets or exceeds the cash needed for the $0.4375 per-share dividend.
Why it matters: Vitesse linked Q2's 9% production rise to the new assets. Later results can show if that added output lasts.
Supportive ifQ3 production stays near or above Q2's 17,354 Boe per day, and management links output to the acquired assets.
Worry ifQ3 production falls below 16,300 Boe per day, or management reports that the new assets did not add lasting output.
Why it matters: Vitesse reported Q2 output above its revised range. Q3 results will show whether the full-year target still holds.
Supportive ifQ3 results keep average 2026 production on pace for 16,300–17,200 Boe per day, with no cut to that range.
Worry ifVitesse cuts its 2026 production range below 16,300 Boe per day or reports output that puts the range out of reach.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $372 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,406 loss on $10,000 · 34.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.