Wabtec (WAB)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$278.48-5.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WAB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WAB — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-11-04
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth above under
Why it matters: Q3 cash conversion was 82%, below the more-than-90% level cited in the prior-year outlook. A rise would show progress.
Supportive ifMore than 90% of operating cash flow converts to cash in a reported quarter.
Worry ifOperating cash flow conversion is 82% or lower in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: The 12-month backlog covers nearer-term work. More growth would support Wabtec's sales outlook.
Supportive if12-month backlog at the next report is above $8.992 billion, its September 2026 level.
Worry if12-month backlog at the next report is below $8.267 billion, its September 2025 level.
Why it matters: Wabtec raised its 2026 EPS range twice. Results above the new top end would extend that progress.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EPS is above $11.05.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EPS is below $10.85, the bottom of the current range.
Why it matters: Freight Services grew 6.7% in Q3, after falling 4.2% in Q2. A further rise would support steady demand.
Supportive ifFreight Services sales rise year over year in the next reported quarter, after Q3 growth of 6.7%.
Worry ifFreight Services sales fall year over year in the next reported quarter.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $225 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,094 loss on $10,000 · 10.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.