Wabtec (WAB)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$282.86+0.72%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WAB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows that Wabtec will have steady revenue. It also shows demand for their products.
Supportive if12-month backlog growth exceeds 10% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry if12-month backlog growth falls below 10% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good efficiency and financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $400 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $400 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Lower growth may mean less profit or problems in operations.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS growth reported below 19.9% year over year.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS growth exceeds 19.9% year over year.
Why it matters: High operating margins mean Wabtec manages costs well. They also have good pricing power.
Supportive ifGAAP operating margin remains above 18.5% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifGAAP operating margin drops below 18.5% for Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$93 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $219 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,085 loss on $10,000 · 10.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Another increase in EPS guidance would show strong confidence in future earnings growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises the adjusted EPS guidance range to above $10.90 for 2026.
Worry ifManagement keeps the adjusted EPS guidance the same or lowers it.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to confirming Wabtec's sales momentum. A drop below this threshold may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is reported below 11.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 11.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Cash flow is crucial for funding growth and returning capital to shareholders. A drop below this level may raise concerns.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is below $400 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations exceeds $400 million.
Why it matters: Backlog growth is a key indicator of future revenue. A slowdown may signal weakening demand or execution issues.
Worry ifBacklog growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifBacklog growth exceeds 10% year over year.