Wabtec (WAB)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$259.19-0.81%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $259.19. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $259 the market pays 29× p/e — above the 23× p/e peer median but in line with its own 27× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $242 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $291–$318. Note: our $242 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($291–$318). Not investment advice.
$291.00 – $318.00 (median $304.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-04-27
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 100% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 13.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $7.81/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $304.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $322.45 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $320.29 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $114.31 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $241.71 | 23.1 | 10.45 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $221.08 | 17.8 | 14.40 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $175.37 | 20.3 | 8.65 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $205.62 | 23.1 | 8.89 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $60.22 | 0.9 | 67.41 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $184.24 | 20.7 | 8.89 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $76.05 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $245.52 | 27.6 | 8.89 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $215.56 | 23.1 | 9.32 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $455.25 | 23.1 | 19.68 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $266.71 | 20.3 | 13.16 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $314.04 | 23.1 | 13.58 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $77.54 | 0.9 | 86.80 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $281.38 | 20.7 | 13.58 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $374.97 | 27.6 | 13.58 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $694.32 | 23.1 | 30.02 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $352.72 | 20.3 | 17.40 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $361.15 | 23.1 | 15.61 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $89.18 | 0.9 | 99.82 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $323.59 | 20.7 | 15.61 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $431.23 | 27.6 | 15.61 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.