Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.95+0.03%
Close 2026-10-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WBD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Generate at least $3 billion free cash flow | The company targets $3 billion free cash flow in 2026. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $2 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow: $572M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3000 USD millions. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026572,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving subscriber numbers and operational cash flow. The current thesis state is cautious, as management faces challenges in execution and market conditions.
The market appears to price in a premium compared to peers, reflecting expectations of recovery and growth. However, the valuation is considered unjustified given the company's current loss-making status and recent performance.
Fundamentals may show mixed results in the near term. Subscriber growth is on track, but cash flow metrics have declined, indicating operational challenges that management needs to address.
The thesis hinges on the successful completion of the merger with Paramount Skydance and the ability to enhance cash flow. Additionally, broader market conditions, such as potential interest rate cuts and performance of sector peers, will play a critical role.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, WBD's trajectory will depend on management's execution and external market factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Discovery aims for over 150 million global subscribers by 2026. |
| Intact |
| subscriber count falls below 140 million by end of 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Global streaming subscribers increased from 122.3 million in 2026-Q1 to 128.0 million in 2025-Q3, with management guidance confirming the target to surpass 150 million by end of 2026. The trajectory shows steady subscriber growth delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Complete merger with Paramount Skydance | A supporting condition in Warner Bros. Discovery's published investment case. The stated target is merger closed by end of 2026. | Intact | merger blocked or delayed beyond 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.06 → $0.00 · observed estimates
$37.84B → $37.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.06 | $37,838,418,665 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.05 | $37,989,324,290 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.05 | $37,989,324,290 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.06 | $37,837,536,312 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.05 | $37,989,324,290 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.04 | $37,975,602,070 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.06 | $37,822,983,926 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.04 | $37,975,579,840 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.06 | $37,822,983,926 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.06 | $37,822,983,926 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.04 | $37,975,579,840 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.04 | $37,975,579,840 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.06 | $37,822,983,926 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.06 | $37,822,983,926 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.06 | $37,822,983,926 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.05 | $37,646,692,760 | 12 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.06 | $37,822,983,926 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.06 | $37,537,368,380 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.06 | $37,822,983,926 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.06 | $37,822,983,926 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.06 | $37,822,983,926 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.06 | $37,822,983,926 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.06 | $37,822,983,926 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.06 | $37,822,983,926 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.06 | $37,822,983,926 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.01 | $37,298,691,940 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.01 | $37,298,691,940 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.01 | $37,298,691,940 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.01 | $37,298,691,940 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.01 | $37,298,691,940 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.01 | $37,236,113,702 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.01 | $37,236,113,702 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.01 | $37,236,113,702 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.01 | $37,236,113,702 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.01 | $37,236,113,702 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.01 | $37,236,113,702 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.01 | $37,236,113,702 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.01 | $37,236,113,702 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.01 | $37,236,113,702 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.01 | $37,236,113,702 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.01 | $37,236,113,702 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.01 | $37,236,113,702 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.01 | $37,142,963,183 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.01 | $37,142,963,183 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.01 | $37,142,963,183 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.01 | $37,142,963,183 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.01 | $37,142,963,183 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.01 | $37,142,963,183 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.01 | $37,142,963,183 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.01 | $37,142,963,183 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.01 | $37,142,963,183 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.01 | $37,142,963,183 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.01 | $37,142,963,183 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.01 | $37,142,963,183 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.01 | $37,142,963,183 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.01 | $37,142,963,183 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.00 | $37,142,962,039 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.00 | $37,142,962,039 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.00 | $37,142,962,039 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.00 | $37,142,959,894 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.00 | $37,142,959,894 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.00 | $37,142,959,894 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.00 | $37,142,959,894 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.00 | $37,142,959,894 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.00 | $37,142,959,894 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.00 | $37,142,959,894 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.00 | $37,142,959,894 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.00 | $37,142,935,517 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.00 | $37,142,935,517 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.00 | $37,142,935,517 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.00 | $37,142,935,517 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.00 | $37,142,935,517 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.00 | $37,142,935,517 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.00 | $37,142,935,517 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.00 | $37,142,935,517 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.00 | $37,142,935,517 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.00 | $37,142,935,517 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.00 | $37,142,935,517 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.00 | $37,142,935,517 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.00 | $37,142,935,517 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.00 | $37,142,935,517 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.00 | $37,142,935,517 | 10 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.