Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.95+0.03%
Close 2026-10-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WBD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 129.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 126.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
WBD — M&A activity — As a result of the consummation of the Merger, at the Effective Time, a chang…
Dated 2026-10-06
As a result of the consummation of the Merger, at the Effective Time, a change in control of WBD occurred and WBD became a wholly owned subsidiary of SKYD. The aggregate Merger Consideration payable by SKYD in connection with the Merger is approximately $78 billion, funded by a combination of equity financing and debt financing.
Why it matters: WBD's Q2 free cash flow fell 19% year over year to $572 million. The next report can show if cash flow is improving after the merger.
Watch forThe next results show free cash flow above $572 million and cash from operations above $848 million.
Also watch forThe next results show free cash flow below $572 million or cash from operations below $848 million.
Why it matters: The merger closed on October 6, and WBD reported $29.7 billion of net debt in Q2. New debt terms and interest costs can change the cash burden.
Watch forA filing after the merger shows net debt or interest expense below Q2 levels: $29.7 billion and $511 million.
Also watch forA post-merger filing shows higher net debt or higher interest expense than those Q2 levels.
Why it matters: Streaming revenue rose 10% and adjusted EBITDA rose 63% in Q2. Continued growth would show the gains are lasting.
Supportive ifQ3 streaming revenue and adjusted EBITDA both rise year over year.
Worry ifQ3 streaming revenue or adjusted EBITDA falls year over year.
Why it matters: The sector data points to a headwind and flags weaker revenue growth as a key change to watch. WBD's Q3 report can show whether its results follow that pattern.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue falls year over year, extending Q2's 12% ex-FX decline.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenue grows year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$66 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $172 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,568 loss on $10,000 · 15.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: WBD set a goal of more than 150 million global streaming subscribers by year-end. Q3 results test progress toward that goal.
Supportive ifQ3 results report more than 150 million global streaming subscribers.
Worry ifQ3 results report fewer than 150 million subscribers, with no clear path to reach the goal by year-end.