Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.25-0.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WBD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 74.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WBD — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-04
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. First Lien Credit Agreement On June 4, 2026, Discovery Global Holdings, Inc. (“DGH”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into that certain First Lien Credit Agreement (the “First Lien Credit Agreement”) among the Company, as holdco, DGH, as parent borrower, the designated subsidiary borrowers from time to time party thereto, the lenders from time to time party thereto, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (“JPM”)…
Why it matters: The merger is key for growth and may affect cash flow and debt levels. Completion could signal a positive shift.
Supportive ifMerger completion is announced before the March 2027 deadline.
Worry ifMerger is delayed or terminated before the March 2027 deadline.
Why it matters: The stockholder vote will determine if the Netflix acquisition proceeds. This impacts WBD's future.
Supportive ifWBD stockholders vote on the Netflix acquisition by April 2026.
Worry ifThe stockholder vote fails to pass or is delayed beyond April 2026.
Why it matters: A bigger decline would show serious problems in ad sales and viewer interest.
Worry ifAdvertising revenue declines more than 22% year over year.
Less concerning ifAdvertising revenue declines less than 22% year over year or stays steady.
Why it matters: Getting more cash from operations is key for WBD's growth and stability.
Supportive ifCash from operations will improve a lot in the next quarters.
Worry ifCash from operations stays flat or goes down more.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$56 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $204 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,568 loss on $10,000 · 15.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big drop in free cash flow would show that operations are less efficient.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow reported down more than 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow remains stable or improves year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in free cash flow would show worse cash management and operations.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported above $572 million in upcoming quarters.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported below $572 million in upcoming quarters.
Why it matters: A steep drop in advertising revenue would signal ongoing challenges in the ad market.
Worry ifQ3 advertising revenue reported down more than 25% year over year.
Less concerning ifAdvertising revenue decline is less than 25% year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show financial performance and how many subscribers there are.
Watch forThe earnings report shows subscriber growth over 150 million worldwide.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows subscriber growth is below 150 million.
Why it matters: Ending this merger could affect growth plans. It may also lower investor confidence.
Worry ifAn official announcement explains why the merger ended. It also covers the effects.
Less concerning ifNew news suggests merger talks with Netflix might start again.
Why it matters: Reaching this milestone would show strong growth in streaming, a key focus for WBD.
Supportive ifGlobal streaming subscribers reach 150 million or more by the end of 2026.
Worry ifSubscribers will be under 150 million by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Closing this merger is crucial for WBD's growth strategy and market position.
Supportive ifThe merger with Paramount Skydance is completed by Q3 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe merger faces delays or is not completed by the expected date.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is vital for WBD's financial health and future investments.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities goes up to $848 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations declines further in Q3 2026.