Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-03 · fmp
Western Digital (WDC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
$267.63-17.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
32.76 → 40.43 EPS · FY ending Jul 3, 2028 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WDC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage margin pressure from Apple and memory market competition | A primary condition in Western Digital's published investment case. The stated target is contain margin erosion to less than 5% next 4 quarters. | Intact | margin falls more than 5% below guidance midpoints | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical storage business with a recovery-driven growth profile, rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and management execution has been volatile, so strong recent performance does not remove the uncertainty.
WDC is cheap versus peers, and the evidence says the current valuation is justified rather than reflecting an unusually high concentration of fragility. The expectations gap is negative, but the valuation model has low confidence, so the market’s assumptions are hard to pin down.
Near-term results have been strong: revenue and gross profit rose from 2026-Q1 to 2026-Q3, and management’s recurring focus on storage demand, HDD innovation, and operating execution is marked on track. Momentum has also improved, with a recent earnings beat, though a guidance cut remains a meaningful risk and the company has a history of a deep miss.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on management sustaining demand and margin execution without cutting guidance. A more supportive backdrop could come from lower interest rates or stabilization among major technology peers, while continued peer weakness or an execution setback would weigh on the business outlook.
For the next 1 to 3 years, WDC combines strong recent operating progress and a cheap-versus-peers valuation with fragile earnings quality and high risk. The multi-year view depends on whether management can keep delivering through a changeable sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Western Digital's published investment case. The stated target is ~51.5%. |
| Broken |
| gross margin falls below 44.5% in fiscal Q4 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain stable capital allocation and avoid dilutive equity raises | A supporting condition in Western Digital's published investment case. The stated target is no major dilutive equity sales next 4 quarters. | Under Pressure | significant dilutive equity issuance announced | Unregistered equity issuance reported Form 8-K reports unregistered sales of equity securities and exchange agreements involving shares. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue to $3.65 billion in fiscal Q4 2026 | A primary condition in Western Digital's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.65 USD_BILLIONS. | Broken | revenue falls below $2.9 billion in fiscal Q4 2026 | Revenue: $4.381B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=3.65 USD_BILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2027-Q1. Oct 23, 20264,381,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$32.90 → $40.43 · observed estimates
$25.99B → $30.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | $32.90 | $25,989,278,132 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $32.90 | $25,989,278,132 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $32.90 | $25,989,278,132 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $32.90 | $25,989,278,132 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $32.90 | $25,989,278,132 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $32.90 | $25,989,278,132 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $32.90 | $25,989,278,132 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $32.90 | $25,989,278,132 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $32.90 | $25,989,278,132 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $32.90 | $25,989,278,132 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $32.90 | $25,989,278,132 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $32.58 | $26,546,800,463 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $32.58 | $26,546,800,463 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $32.58 | $26,546,800,463 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $32.58 | $26,546,800,463 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $32.58 | $26,546,800,463 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $32.58 | $26,546,800,463 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $32.58 | $26,546,800,463 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $32.58 | $26,546,800,463 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $32.58 | $26,546,800,463 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $32.54 | $26,496,667,108 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $32.54 | $26,496,667,108 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $32.54 | $26,496,667,108 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $32.54 | $26,496,667,108 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $32.54 | $26,496,667,108 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $32.54 | $26,496,667,108 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $32.54 | $26,496,667,108 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $32.54 | $26,496,667,108 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $32.54 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $32.68 | $26,496,658,198 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $32.76 | $26,549,134,389 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $32.76 | $26,549,134,389 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $32.76 | $26,549,134,389 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $32.76 | $26,549,134,389 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $32.76 | $26,549,134,389 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $32.76 | $26,549,134,389 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $32.76 | $26,549,134,389 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $32.76 | $26,549,134,389 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $32.76 | $26,549,134,389 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $32.76 | $26,548,997,879 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $32.76 | $26,548,995,946 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $32.76 | $26,548,995,946 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $32.76 | $26,549,132,455 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $32.76 | $26,549,308,253 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $32.79 | $26,567,762,798 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $32.98 | $26,651,287,936 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $32.98 | $26,651,287,936 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $32.98 | $26,651,287,936 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $32.98 | $26,651,287,936 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $32.91 | $26,639,034,182 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $33.08 | $26,732,034,182 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $33.08 | $26,732,034,182 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $33.08 | $26,732,034,182 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $33.26 | $26,829,844,472 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $33.26 | $26,829,844,472 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $33.23 | $26,876,112,289 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $33.25 | $26,882,117,876 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $33.96 | $27,059,155,524 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $35.48 | $27,852,859,641 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $39.64 | $29,691,690,895 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $39.64 | $29,691,690,895 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $39.64 | $29,691,690,895 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $39.64 | $29,691,690,895 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $40.00 | $29,972,964,808 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $40.43 | $30,220,528,695 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $40.43 | $30,220,528,695 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $40.43 | $30,220,528,695 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $40.43 | $30,220,528,695 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $40.43 | $30,220,528,695 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $40.43 | $30,220,528,695 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $40.43 | $30,220,528,695 | 12 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 12 recorded
3 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.