Western Digital (WDC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$467.46+5.86%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WDC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 68.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 55.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers
WDC — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-08-27
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. As previously reported on a Current Report on Form 8-K filed the morning of August 26, 2026 (the “Original Form 8-K”), Western Digital Corporation (the “Company”) entered into separate, privately negotiated exchange agreements with certain holders of its 3.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028 (the “Notes”), pursuant to which such holders have agreed to exchange approximately $191.0 million aggregate principal amount of Notes for cash and shares of com…
Why it matters: A slowdown in sector growth could impact Western Digital's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this EPS would reflect strong earnings growth and shareholder returns.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS reported at $4.00 or higher.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS reported below $3.85.
Why it matters: Cutting debt will make the balance sheet stronger. It will also help financial stability.
Supportive ifDebt reported below $4.5 billion.
Worry ifDebt reported above $4.7 billion.
Why it matters: This spin-off will create two focused companies, which could enhance shareholder value.
Watch forThe spin-off occurs as planned on February 21, 2025.
Also watch forThe spin-off is delayed or canceled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$397 on $10,000 · ±4.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $809 loss on $10,000 · 8.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,180 loss on $10,000 · 41.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This margin shows that costs are managed well. It also shows efficient operations.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP gross margin reported at 55.5% or higher.
Worry ifNon-GAAP gross margin reported below 55.0%.
Why it matters: Getting approval for Spinco's listing means the flash business separation worked. This affects WDC's focus and value.
Supportive ifSpinco stock approved for listing on Nasdaq under the ticker SNDK.
Worry ifSpinco stock fails to receive listing approval.
Why it matters: High free cash flow helps pay shareholders and invest in operations.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $1 billion in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $900 million in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: This revenue target shows that the company is still growing. It also shows operational success.
Supportive ifQ4FY26 revenue reported at $3.65 billion or higher.
Worry ifRevenue is below $3.55 billion. This suggests a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance would confirm strong demand trends and growth momentum.
Supportive ifQ1 FY27 revenue reported at $4.1 billion or higher.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 revenue reported below $4.0 billion.
Why it matters: If they exceed this guidance, it shows strong demand and good operations in a tough market.
Supportive ifQ1FY27 revenue guidance above 49% year-over-year growth.
Worry ifQ1FY27 revenue guidance below 42% year-over-year growth.
Why it matters: Successful redemption shows strong finances. It also shows good use of capital.
Supportive ifRedemption of $1.8 billion in senior notes was completed as planned.
Worry ifRedemption was delayed or not done as scheduled.
Why it matters: This earnings report gives details about how the company is doing.
Watch forEarnings report shows strong results with revenue and margin targets met.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows weak results and missed targets.