Western Digital (WDC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
$323.83-6.77%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WDC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 54.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 65.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WDC — debt issuance
Dated 2026-09-14
Regulation FD Disclosure. On September 14, 2026, Western Digital Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding the redemption of its 3.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028 (the “Notes”), a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange…
Why it matters: WD exchanged about $191 million of notes for cash and shares. More such deals could add shares and weigh on returns to owners.
Worry ifA new filing reports another note exchange that issues shares to note holders.
Less concerning ifWD reports no new share-issuing note exchange in its next quarterly filing.
Why it matters: WD guided to a 60% to 61% gross margin. A result in that range would extend recent margin gains.
Supportive ifQ2 FY27 non-GAAP gross margin is at least 60%.
Worry ifQ2 FY27 non-GAAP gross margin is below 60%.
Why it matters: WD raised its dividend to $0.175 per share. A cut would weaken its stated plan to return cash to shareholders.
Worry ifWD sets a quarterly dividend below $0.175 per share or suspends it.
Less concerning ifWD declares a quarterly dividend of at least $0.175 per share.
Why it matters: WD guided to $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion in revenue. Meeting that range would support its storage demand story.
Supportive ifQ2 FY27 revenue is at least $5.0 billion, within or above the guided range.
Worry ifQ2 FY27 revenue is below $5.0 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$357 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $836 loss on $10,000 · 8.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,660 loss on $10,000 · 56.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management links growth to strong storage demand and more customer engagement. Continued growth would back that claim.
Supportive ifA later release shows revenue growth year over year. It cites strong exabyte growth or stronger customer demand.
Worry ifA later release shows year-over-year revenue below $4.381 billion. It cites weaker storage demand.
Why it matters: The tech sector is still growing, but its growth trend is easing. Slower sector growth could add pressure if WD demand also weakens.
Worry ifThe XLK sector report says revenue growth has fallen below its median.
Less concerning ifThe XLK sector report says revenue growth remains above its median or its trend is no longer easing.