Wells Fargo (WFC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$89.97+0.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WFC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
WFC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-14
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 14, 2026, Wells Fargo & Company (the “Company”) issued a news release regarding its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, and posted on its website its 1Q26 Quarterly Supplement, which contains certain additional information about the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The news release is included as Exhibit 99.1 and the 1Q26 Quarterly Supplement is included as…
Why it matters: Higher costs can hurt profits. This can also lower operating leverage.
Worry ifNoninterest expenses grew more than 3% compared to last year in Q3.
Less concerning ifNoninterest expense growth is at or below 3% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Slower growth in net interest income can hurt profits and margins.
Worry ifNet interest income growth is below 4% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifNet interest income growth is above 4% compared to last year.
Why it matters: The court's decision may change Wells Fargo's reputation and trust from shareholders.
Watch forCourt approves the settlement terms on May 5, 2026.
Also watch forCourt denies the settlement approval on May 5, 2026.
Why it matters: Higher loan growth indicates strong demand and can boost net interest income.
Supportive ifAverage loans increase more than 12% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifAverage loans increase less than 12% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $276 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,347 loss on $10,000 · 23.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More charge-offs may show rising credit risk and hurt profits.
Worry ifConsumer loan charge-offs rise above 0.78% in Q2.
Less concerning ifConsumer loan charge-offs stay stable or go down.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows Wells Fargo can grow revenue. This means stability.
Supportive ifManagement will confirm net interest income guidance in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement will lower net interest income guidance in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choice can affect net interest income. This impacts how much money banks make.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates.
Also watch forFOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Why it matters: A drop could show bigger problems in the financial sector affecting Wells Fargo.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median in the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Raising the dividend shows trust in future earnings. It draws in investors.
Supportive ifManagement will announce a dividend increase in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement decides to keep the dividend flat or cut it.
Why it matters: Guidance shows growth momentum. It helps build investor trust in revenue stability.
Supportive ifManagement says net interest income will be about $50 billion for 2026.
Worry ifManagement says net interest income will be less than $50 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings reports show how well a company is doing. They can affect investor feelings.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income growth year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net income decline year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows the bank can manage its interest income during tough times.
Supportive ifManagement says net interest income guidance is stable or goes up in Q2.
Worry ifManagement cuts net interest income guidance for Q2.
Why it matters: Net loan charge-offs are a key indicator of credit quality. A rise could signal worsening conditions.
Worry ifNet loan charge-offs remain below 0.34% of average loans.
Less concerning ifNet loan charge-offs exceed 0.45% of average loans.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a sign of overall business health. A drop could indicate a slowdown in demand.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth is over 9% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue growth is under 6% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A rise in dividends shows good money management. It also shows a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend is raised to $0.50 per share as planned.
Worry ifThe dividend remains at $0.45 per share or is cut.