Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp
Willdan Group, Inc. (WLDN)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$70.85-4.51%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.32 → 5.52 EPS · FY ending Jan 2, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WLDN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase Adjusted EBITDA by 26% to 32% | A supporting condition in Willdan Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 26% YoY increase. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 26% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented business with recent strong financial performance, rather than a turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable and execution risk remains elevated.
WLDN is assessed as cheap versus peers, with only a small gap between expectations and the valuation model’s outlook. Pricing appears justified overall, and the evidence does not point to high fragility from overly demanding expectations.
Near term, management’s 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS priorities are on track, following higher guidance and improved second-quarter results. However, peer earnings have been uneven and WLDN has had erratic earnings surprises, so execution remains a risk despite recent positive earnings reports.
The thesis depends on WLDN sustaining delivery against its raised 2026 guidance. A reversal and guidance cut would damage management credibility as well as the outlook. In the near term, continued strong results from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from them could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, WLDN’s thesis rests on continued execution and a better sector backdrop; recent results support the case, but risks remain elevated. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Normalized to reflect the 26-week first quarter of fiscal 2026 versus the 27-week first quarter of fiscal 2025.” “b. See “Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below.”
Adjusted diluted EPS between $4.90 and $5.05 | A primary condition in Willdan Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.90 and <= $5.05. | Intact | EPS falls below $4.90 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Eastern/2:30 p.m. Pacific. To access the call, listeners should dial 877-407-2988 (or 201-389-0923).” “The conference call will be webcast simultaneously on Willdan’s website at https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/qyujt8ei/.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Leadership stability and confidence | A supporting condition in Willdan Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further significant insider selling. | Under Pressure | Additional large insider stock sales by CEO or key executives | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue between $410M and $425M | A primary condition in Willdan Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $410M and <= $425M. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $410M or exceeds $425M in FY26 | Revenue: $231.028M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $410M and <= $425M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026231,028,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Normalized to reflect the 26-week first quarter of fiscal 2026 versus the 27-week first quarter of fiscal 2025.” “ Second Quarter 2026 Conference Call Willdan will be hosting a conference call to discuss its second quarter financial results today, at 5:30 p.m.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.14 → $5.52 · observed estimates
$0.47B → $0.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.14 | $468,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.32 | $478,466,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.52 | $516,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.