Willdan Group, Inc. (WLDN)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$85.78-1.48%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WLDN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -27.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WLDN — officer change
Dated 2026-06-18
The filing pertains to compensatory arrangements and amendments to the performance incentive plan, not a management change.
Why it matters: Earnings below this level may raise worries about profit and growth.
Worry ifAdjusted Diluted EPS below $5.00 would show weaker profit.
Less concerning ifAdjusted Diluted EPS above $5.00 would show strong earnings.
Why it matters: Strong contract revenue growth shows high demand. It also shows effective business strategies.
Supportive ifQ3 contract revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 contract revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth over 20% shows strong demand for energy solutions. This helps management's goals.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenue exceeds $104 million, maintaining growth above 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue is under $104 million. This shows demand is weakening.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS shows strong earnings growth and progress toward the annual target.
Supportive ifAdjusted Diluted EPS is at or above $1.00 for Q2. This shows strong earnings growth.
Worry ifAdjusted Diluted EPS is below $1.00. This suggests challenges in making money.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$165 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $470 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,041 loss on $10,000 · 50.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows, Willdan may do better.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This purchase may help Willdan grow in the energy market.
Watch forBurton Energy Group reported more revenue in Q3.
Also watch forNo clear revenue growth from Burton Energy Group in Q3 results.
Why it matters: Lower growth may show problems with managing costs and growing operations.
Worry ifIf adjusted EBITDA growth is below 26% year over year, it shows problems.
Less concerning ifIf adjusted EBITDA growth is above 26% year over year, it shows good management.
Why it matters: Management aims for Adjusted EBITDA growth of 26% to 32%. This shows strong business health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 2026 is over $33 million. This shows growth is happening.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 2026 is under $33 million. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Management targets net revenue between $415 million and $430 million for FY2026. Meeting this shows strong demand.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenue is between $415 million and $430 million. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue is below $415 million. This shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: Management aims for adjusted diluted EPS between $5.00 and $5.15. This reflects strong earnings growth.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted diluted EPS is between $5.00 and $5.15. This shows earnings growth.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted diluted EPS is below $5.00. This shows weaker earnings.