Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Watsco (WSO)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$319.52+2.51%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.15 → 12.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WSO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful execution of asset purchase agreement with Jackson Supply | A supporting condition in Watsco's published investment case. The stated target is Completion and integration of asset purchase by end of 2026. | Intact | Failure to complete or integrate asset purchase by end 2026 | Qualitative condition met WSO signed merger agreement for Granite Group Holdings in Sept 2026 and entered new credit facility in Oct 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WSO is a distribution and acquisition-growth business, with technology investment and dividends also central to its plan. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the latest signal shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and earnings quality is fragile.
WSO trades at a premium to peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are a little ahead of the evidence. The snapshot characterizes this valuation as justified and fragility as low, rather than showing a broader combination of expensive valuation and weak execution.
Near term, recent earnings misses and nine-month operating income down 7% point to uneven execution, despite revenue up 3% and e-commerce sales up 12%. Acquisitions added locations and annualized revenue, while operating cash flow rose 79% and management increased the dividend; the mixed results leave technology-driven efficiency progress to watch.
The next call matters: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, especially given the run of earnings misses. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on turning digital investment and network expansion into stronger operating results; industrial bellwethers' earnings and guidance may also signal whether the sector backdrop improves or weakens.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, but the latest results make execution and the sector backdrop important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It raised dividends 10% to $3.00 per share in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $3.00 quarterly |
Dividend per share: $3.30 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.00 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20263.3 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Deliver earnings at or above consensus EPS of $12.63 for FY 2026 | A primary condition in Watsco's published investment case. The stated target is >= $12.63 EPS for FY 2026. | Broken | EPS falls below $12.63 for FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $3.77 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.63 EPS for FY 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 20263.77 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain stable quarterly revenue near $1.53 billion | Watsco keeps stable revenue near $1.53 billion per quarter. | Broken | quarterly revenue falls below $1.53 billion | Revenue: $2.22B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.53 billion per quarter. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 27, 20262,220,358,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.74 → $12.86 · observed estimates
$8.05B → $8.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.74 | $8,046,771,000 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.74 | $8,046,771,000 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.74 | $8,046,771,000 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.74 | $8,046,771,000 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.74 | $8,046,771,000 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.74 | $8,046,771,000 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.74 | $8,046,771,000 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.30 | $7,969,334,428 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.30 | $7,969,334,428 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.26 | $7,959,957,510 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.22 | $7,973,277,285 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.26 | $7,959,957,510 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.26 | $7,959,957,510 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.22 | $7,973,277,285 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.22 | $7,973,277,285 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.22 | $7,973,277,285 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.26 | $7,959,957,510 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.22 | $7,973,277,285 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.26 | $7,959,957,510 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.22 | $7,973,277,285 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.22 | $7,973,277,285 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.22 | $7,973,277,285 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.22 | $7,973,277,285 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.22 | $7,973,277,285 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.22 | $7,973,277,285 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.14 | $7,965,221,692 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.14 | $7,960,746,283 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.14 | $7,960,746,283 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.14 | $7,960,746,283 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.14 | $7,960,746,283 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.14 | $7,960,746,283 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.14 | $7,960,746,283 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.14 | $7,960,746,283 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.14 | $7,960,746,283 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.14 | $7,960,746,283 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.14 | $7,960,746,283 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.14 | $7,960,746,283 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.15 | $7,963,977,052 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.15 | $7,963,977,052 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.15 | $7,963,977,052 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.15 | $7,963,977,052 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.15 | $7,963,977,052 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.15 | $7,963,977,052 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.15 | $7,963,977,052 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.15 | $7,963,977,052 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.15 | $7,963,977,052 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.15 | $7,963,977,052 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,746 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,745 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,745 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,745 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.15 | $7,963,938,745 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.23 | $8,005,645,691 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.23 | $8,005,645,691 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.18 | $7,994,556,149 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.18 | $7,995,542,757 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.18 | $7,995,581,064 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.18 | $7,995,581,064 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.18 | $7,995,581,064 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.15 | $7,995,581,064 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.15 | $7,995,581,064 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.15 | $7,995,581,064 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.15 | $7,995,581,064 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.15 | $7,995,581,064 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.15 | $8,034,481,064 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.15 | $8,034,481,064 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.15 | $8,034,481,064 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.18 | $8,077,250,295 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.18 | $8,077,250,295 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.18 | $8,077,250,295 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.18 | $8,077,250,295 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.91 | $8,353,982,748 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.86 | $8,353,150,190 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.83 | $8,391,319,421 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.83 | $8,391,319,421 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.83 | $8,391,319,421 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.83 | $8,391,319,421 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.86 | $8,430,890,428 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.86 | $8,430,890,428 | 8 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.