Watsco (WSO)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$319.52+2.51%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WSO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WSO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 27, 2026, Watsco, Inc., a Florida corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is hereby incorporated by reference in this
Why it matters: Q3 gross margin fell to 26.4% from 27.5%. A further drop would add pressure to profit as sales grow.
Worry ifQuarterly gross margin falls below 26.4%.
Less concerning ifQuarterly gross margin stays at or above 26.4%.
Why it matters: Q3 same-store sales rose 4%, and early Q4 trends showed more momentum. Growth above that level would support the recovery in demand.
Supportive ifQ4 same-store sales growth is above 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ4 same-store sales growth is below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Management's stated cash goal is to generate more operating cash than net income each year. The nine-month cash flow rose 79% to $304 million.
Supportive ifFull-year operating cash flow exceeds full-year net income.
Worry ifFull-year operating cash flow is at or below full-year net income.
Why it matters: Management linked sales growth to better HVAC demand, while the industrial sector faces a headwind. The CPI report is a near-term check on price trends, not a direct test of Watsco sales.
Watch forThe November 10 CPI report shows lower inflation than the prior year’s report.
Also watch forThe November 10 CPI report shows higher inflation than the prior year’s report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$127 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $321 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,873 loss on $10,000 · 38.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Granite Group adds 82 locations and about $500 million in annual sales. Early results can show whether the deal adds scale and broadens Watsco's reach.
Supportive ifWatsco reports Granite Group sales and confirms its locations remain in the network. It reports no reduction from the stated 82 locations.
Worry ifWatsco reports a material loss of Granite Group sales or closes a large share of its 82 locations.
Why it matters: E-commerce sales rose 10% in Q3, faster than total sales growth of 7%. Continued gains would show that customers keep using Watsco's digital tools.
Supportive ifReported e-commerce sales growth stays above 10% year over year in the next report.
Worry ifReported e-commerce sales growth is 7% or less year over year in the next reported period.