Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Wintrust Financial (WTFC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$156.12+0.48%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.86 → 14.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WTFC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share increases to at least $0.55 in Q1 2026 | The company raised its dividend per share to $0.55, showing strong capital returns. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.55 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.55 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.55 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20260.55 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WTFC is a bank with a fundamentals-led thesis, not a turnaround story. The thesis state is intact, and recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, though management execution is rated neutral.
Valuation is stretched versus peers, with the model showing a 1.14 premium and a modest expectations gap. Fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to concentrated weakness in what is priced in.
In the near term, recent earnings beats and growth in loans, deposits, and net interest income support the business trend; net interest margin edged lower from the first to third quarter. Credit signals are mixed: non-performing loans declined slightly, but net charge-offs rose in the latest reported quarter.
Over the next few quarters, consistent balance-sheet growth and stable margins would support the multi-year thesis, while a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. The rate backdrop and earnings trends at financial-sector peers are additional swing factors; the evidence flags rate cuts as a headwind and peer strength as supportive.
The 1-to-3-year view remains intact, backed by strong recent performance, but stretched valuation and mixed credit quality leave execution and the rate backdrop important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Net income increases to at least $227 million in Q1 2026 |
| Wintrust Financial grows net income steadily, up 20% year over year. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below $227 million in any quarter |
Net income: $239.054M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $227 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026239,054,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income increases to at least $300 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income rose to $300.9 million in Q1 2026 from $253.1 million last year. | Intact | operating income falls below $300 million in any quarter | Operating income: $328.086M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $300 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026328,086,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth does not fall below -11% next year | A primary condition in Wintrust Financial's published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline no worse than -11% YoY. | Intact | revenue decline exceeds -11% YoY in FY2027 | Revenue growth: 4.05% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: revenue decline no worse than -11% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20264.049141 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.81 → $14.13 · observed estimates
$3.17B → $3.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.81 | $3,166,176,530 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.81 | $3,158,889,530 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.79 | $3,162,143,745 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.81 | $3,158,889,530 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.81 | $3,158,889,530 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.79 | $3,162,143,745 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.79 | $3,162,143,745 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.81 | $3,158,889,530 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.79 | $3,162,143,745 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.81 | $3,158,889,530 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.79 | $3,162,143,745 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.81 | $3,158,889,530 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.81 | $3,157,434,990 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,119 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,119 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.81 | $3,157,434,990 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,119 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,119 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.81 | $3,157,434,990 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,119 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,119 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,119 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,119 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,119 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,119 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,120 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,120 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,120 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,120 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,120 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,120 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,120 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,120 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.79 | $3,160,816,120 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,017 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,017 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.80 | $3,162,374,734 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.79 | $3,161,976,599 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.81 | $3,163,801,599 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.81 | $3,163,906,876 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.81 | $3,163,908,506 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.81 | $3,163,908,506 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.81 | $3,163,908,506 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.81 | $3,163,908,506 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.81 | $3,163,908,506 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.81 | $3,163,908,506 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.81 | $3,163,908,506 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.81 | $3,163,885,430 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.81 | $3,163,885,430 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.86 | $3,166,746,968 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.86 | $3,166,746,968 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.87 | $3,170,651,090 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.87 | $3,170,651,090 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.88 | $3,171,374,827 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.88 | $3,171,374,167 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.88 | $3,171,374,167 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.88 | $3,171,374,167 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.88 | $3,171,374,167 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.89 | $3,169,978,003 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.89 | $3,169,978,003 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.89 | $3,169,978,003 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.89 | $3,169,978,003 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.89 | $3,169,978,003 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.89 | $3,169,978,003 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.89 | $3,170,355,060 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.98 | $3,181,064,342 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.06 | $3,188,071,387 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.06 | $3,188,071,387 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.10 | $3,188,071,387 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.10 | $3,189,533,533 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.10 | $3,189,533,533 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.10 | $3,189,533,533 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.10 | $3,189,533,533 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.10 | $3,189,533,533 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.12 | $3,191,953,313 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.12 | $3,191,953,313 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.13 | $3,193,840,541 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.13 | $3,193,840,541 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.13 | $3,193,864,913 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.13 | $3,193,864,913 | 12 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.