Wintrust Financial (WTFC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$154.12+0.39%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WTFC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
WTFC — credit agreement
Dated 2025-12-08
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 4, 2025, Wintrust Financial Corporation ("Wintrust") entered into the Fourth Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated December 4, 2025 (the "Fourth Amendment"), among Wintrust, the lenders named therein, and U.S. Bank National Association, as administrative agent. Capitalized terms used but not defined herein shall have the respective meanings ascribed to them by the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated December 12…
Why it matters: A lower provision shows good credit quality and strong risk management. This helps financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 provision for credit losses was under $25 million.
Worry ifQ3 provision for credit losses was over $30 million.
Why it matters: A higher net interest margin means better profits from loans and deposits.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net interest margin exceeds 3.56% reported in Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net interest margin falls below 3.54%.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for Wintrust. This may affect its performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 12%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median of 12%.
Why it matters: Net income keeps growing. This shows better operations and strong performance. It helps management's growth plan.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 2026 exceeds $227.4 million, continuing the growth trend.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 2026 is under $200 million. This suggests a possible slowdown.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A rise would suggest possible credit quality problems. This could impact future earnings.
Worry ifNon-performing loans reported below 0.35% of total loans in Q3.
Less concerning ifNon-performing loans reported above 0.35% of total loans in Q3.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs can mean credit quality problems. This might hurt future profits.
Worry ifNet charge-offs in Q2 2026 are over $18.4 million. This shows more credit issues.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs stay under $18 million. This shows credit quality is stable.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show strong financial health. It shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share increases to $0.60 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at $0.55 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs may mean credit quality problems that can hurt earnings.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are over 20 basis points of total loans each year.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs are under 20 basis points. This shows credit quality is stable.
Why it matters: More non-interest income shows growth in fee services. This helps overall revenue.
Supportive ifNon-interest income is more than $134.1 million in Q1 2026.
Worry ifNon-interest income falls below $134.1 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher operating income growth shows the company is doing better. It is making more money.
Supportive ifOperating income growth is over 15% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Growth in net interest income shows strong loan and deposit performance. This helps management's growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest income increases year over year by more than 3%.
Worry ifQ3 net interest income growth is less than 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs may show weaker credit quality. This is important for keeping investor trust.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed $15 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below $15 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth helps management's goal of steady balance sheet growth. It can also boost profits.
Supportive ifTotal loans increase by more than 10% annualized in Q3.
Worry ifTotal loans grow less than 5% annualized in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It shows they care about shareholders.
Watch forDividend per share remains at $0.55 in Q3.
Also watch forDividend per share is cut below $0.55 in Q3.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $234 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,930 loss on $10,000 · 19.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.