Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Willis Towers Watson (WTW)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$336.51-0.25%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
22.88 → 22.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WTW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS near $3.72 per share in FY26 | Profit per share is expected near $3.72 in 2026. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $3.72 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WTW is an established financial-services business whose long-term case depends on operating discipline and efficiency gains, rather than a turnaround. Management remains stable, and segment margins are improving, but recent results are weak and earnings quality is fragile. The thesis is in a watch state after the latest miss.
WTW is valued at a 1.5-times premium to peers, and the valuation signal is stretched. The evidence points to a meaningful expectations gap, though the model has medium confidence and does not show that the full set of fragile, expensive, and turbulent conditions is priced in.
Near term, the latest earnings miss sharply weakened company momentum and changed the signal from mildly favorable to mixed. There is a 30% estimated miss probability, while management has continued to expand segment margins and reported early savings from AI and automation. Progress toward the 2028 adjusted-margin goal remains limited overall, and a guidance cut is a key risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether WTW can sustain margin expansion and turn early automation savings into broader progress toward its 2028 goal. A guidance cut or Fed rate cuts would weigh on the setup; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support it.
For the 1-to-3-year view, WTW has a credible margin-improvement effort, but weak recent performance and a stretched valuation make execution the central question. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Willis Towers Watson's published investment case. The stated target is >=1 billion USD. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $1 billion in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $675M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1 billion USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026675,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 7% annually | A primary condition in Willis Towers Watson's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 7.52% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20267.517483 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchases totaling $1.0 billion or more | A supporting condition in Willis Towers Watson's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.0 billion USD total. | Intact | Total share repurchases fall significantly short of $1.0 billion in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$22.12 → $22.90 · observed estimates
$10.99B → $11.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $22.12 | $10,986,711,400 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $22.17 | $10,964,079,480 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $22.12 | $10,986,711,400 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $22.17 | $10,979,128,950 | 21 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $22.12 | $10,986,711,400 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $22.12 | $10,986,711,400 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $22.12 | $10,986,711,400 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $22.29 | $10,992,381,890 | 21 / 17 |
| 2026-08-01 | $22.42 | $10,996,882,689 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $22.66 | $11,014,428,189 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $22.66 | $11,014,428,189 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $22.67 | $11,009,444,450 | 21 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $22.80 | $11,028,805,590 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $22.80 | $11,028,805,590 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $22.66 | $11,014,428,189 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $22.80 | $11,028,805,590 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $22.80 | $11,028,805,590 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $22.86 | $11,029,205,590 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $22.86 | $11,029,205,590 | 21 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $22.66 | $11,014,428,189 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $22.66 | $11,014,428,189 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $22.66 | $11,014,428,189 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $22.66 | $11,014,428,189 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $22.66 | $11,014,428,189 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $22.66 | $11,014,428,189 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $22.88 | $11,008,480,206 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $22.91 | $11,008,357,983 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $22.88 | $11,008,302,428 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $22.88 | $11,008,302,428 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $22.88 | $11,008,302,428 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $22.88 | $11,008,302,428 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $22.88 | $11,008,302,428 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $22.88 | $11,008,302,428 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $22.88 | $11,008,302,428 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $22.88 | $11,008,302,428 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $22.88 | $11,008,302,428 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $22.88 | $11,008,302,428 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $22.87 | $11,006,896,872 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $22.87 | $11,006,896,872 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $22.87 | $11,006,896,872 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $22.87 | $11,006,896,872 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $22.87 | $11,006,896,872 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $22.87 | $11,006,896,872 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $22.87 | $11,006,896,872 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $22.87 | $11,006,896,872 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $22.87 | $11,006,896,872 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $22.87 | $11,006,896,872 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $22.87 | $11,006,896,872 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $22.87 | $11,010,099,100 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $22.88 | $11,008,862,989 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $22.88 | $11,009,196,322 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $22.88 | $11,009,196,322 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $22.88 | $11,009,196,322 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $22.88 | $11,009,196,322 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $22.92 | $11,007,853,717 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $22.92 | $11,006,409,272 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $22.92 | $11,010,075,939 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $22.92 | $11,010,075,939 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $22.92 | $11,010,075,939 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $22.92 | $11,010,075,939 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $22.91 | $11,009,242,606 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $22.91 | $11,009,233,444 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $22.87 | $11,002,532,241 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $22.88 | $11,012,024,408 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $22.88 | $11,012,024,408 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $22.88 | $11,012,024,408 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $22.88 | $11,015,343,974 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $22.90 | $11,005,890,106 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-11-05 | $22.90 | $11,005,890,106 | 12 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 7 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.