Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Woodward, Inc. (WWD)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$326.37-1.90%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.70 → 12.70 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WWD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures steady near $290M | A supporting condition in Woodward, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~290 million USD. | Intact | Capital expenditures rise above $350M or fall below $250M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $59.617M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~290 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 202659,617,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WWD is an industrial growth business with recent strong financial performance, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and management execution has been volatile.
The evidence describes WWD as expensive, even though its valuation model points to a discount versus peers; model confidence is low. The expectations gap is modestly negative, and the priced-in assessment says fragility is low because weakness in execution is not combined with the full set of other risks.
Near term, revenue, earnings, adjusted EPS, and segment margins have strengthened, while management has repeatedly raised full-year guidance. The next call is a key check: guidance is currently reaffirmed, and the stated miss risk is low, though a deep miss occurred in recent history. Sector headwinds and the recent exit-related costs add uncertainty.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining profitable growth, margin gains, and disciplined capital allocation. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, while continued strength among industrial bellwethers could support sector momentum; weaker results or guidance from those companies could remove that support.
For the 1 to 3 year view, recent execution keeps the thesis intact, but expensive valuation, sector headwinds, and medium confidence make continued delivery important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow stays healthy near $350M. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $300M in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $87.056M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=300 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 202687,056,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income at least $167M in Q2 FY26 | Profit rises with better price and volume, reaching $167M operating income. | Intact | Operating income falls below $133M in Q2 FY26 | Operating income: $194.125M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=167.4 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 30, 2026194,125,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 20% YoY | A primary condition in Woodward, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=20% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 14% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 21.22% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=20% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 202621.220148 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.70 → $12.70 · observed estimates
$5.19B → $5.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $12.70 | $5,190,258,470 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.70 | $5,190,258,470 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.70 | $5,190,258,470 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.70 | $5,186,332,637 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.70 | $5,186,332,637 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.70 | $5,186,332,637 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.70 | $5,186,666,803 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.66 | $5,180,142,387 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.66 | $5,180,142,387 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.66 | $5,180,142,387 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.66 | $5,180,142,387 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.66 | $5,180,011,303 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.66 | $5,180,011,303 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.66 | $5,180,011,303 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.66 | $5,180,011,303 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.66 | $5,180,011,303 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.66 | $5,180,011,303 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.68 | $5,180,009,137 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.68 | $5,180,009,137 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.68 | $5,180,009,137 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.68 | $5,184,086,411 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.68 | $5,184,086,411 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.68 | $5,184,086,411 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.68 | $5,184,086,411 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.68 | $5,184,086,411 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.68 | $5,184,086,411 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.68 | $5,184,086,411 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.68 | $5,184,086,411 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.68 | $5,184,086,411 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.70 | $5,185,728,078 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.70 | $5,185,728,078 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.70 | $5,185,728,078 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.70 | $5,185,728,078 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.70 | $5,185,728,078 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.70 | $5,185,728,078 | 6 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.