Woodward, Inc. (WWD)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$346.22+1.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WWD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 28.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WWD — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-21
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 19, 2026, Woodward, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into a Note Purchase Agreement (the “ Note Purchase Agreement ”) with the purchasers named therein (the “ Purchasers ”), relating to the sale by the Company and the purchase by the Purchasers of an aggregate principal amount of $450,000,000 of senior unsecured notes comprised of (a) $150,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s Series U Senior Notes due September 30, 2029 (the “…
Why it matters: Free cash flow is key for capital allocation. A drop could signal issues in cash management.
Worry ifFree cash flow for Q3 is reported above $75 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow for Q3 is reported below $50 million.
Why it matters: Spending shows how a company invests in growth. Changes can show new plans or market changes.
Watch forSpending was over $290 million in Q3.
Also watch forSpending was under $250 million in Q3.
Why it matters: The dividend shows Woodward's promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend is paid on time and remains at $0.32 per share.
Worry ifDividend payment is late or smaller.
Why it matters: Better margins in the Industrial segment show good cost management and pricing.
Supportive ifIndustrial segment margin improves to at least 19% in Q4.
Worry ifIndustrial segment margin drops below 19% in Q4.
Why it matters: Another raise in earnings guidance would show strong demand and confidence in growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises Q4 earnings guidance above the current range of $9.30 - $9.50.
Worry ifManagement keeps Q4 earnings guidance the same or lowers it.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would support management's goal of increasing revenue. It shows the company is on track despite sector challenges.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in money use can show how the company plans to grow.
Supportive ifManagement shares a new plan to invest money for growth.
Worry ifManagement says it will focus on paying off debt instead of growing.
Why it matters: Management raised sales growth guidance to 20%-23%. This shows strong demand and good execution.
Supportive ifQ3 sales growth guidance confirmed at 20% or higher year over year.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth guidance revised down below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in capital spending show how much management believes in future growth. It also shows their plans for investment.
Watch forCapital spending was reported at over $290 million for the fiscal year.
Also watch forCapital spending was reported at under $290 million for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: New debt could affect cash flow and capital allocation. Monitor its effects.
Worry ifDebt issuance leads to stable or improved cash flow metrics.
Less concerning ifDebt issuance results in declining cash flow metrics.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is vital for funding operations and dividends. A decline could signal cash management issues.
Worry ifFree cash flow drops below $300 million for FY26.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow remains above $300 million for FY26.
Why it matters: More debt can affect financial stability and how money is used.
Worry ifTotal debt increases above $1.34 billion after the $450 million bond issuance.
Less concerning ifTotal debt remains stable or decreases below $1.34 billion.
Why it matters: Higher margins show good cost management. They also show pricing power in a tough market.
Supportive ifAerospace segment earnings margin is above 23.5% for the fiscal year.
Worry ifAerospace earnings margin is under 23%.
Why it matters: The dividend increase shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifBoard confirms another dividend increase beyond the current $0.32 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend amount for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher capital expenditures may show strong growth plans. But they could hurt cash flow.
Watch forSpending is over $290 million for the fiscal year.
Also watch forSpending is under $290 million for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Aerospace sales growth is key to overall revenue. It shows demand strength.
Supportive ifAerospace segment sales growth exceeds 23% year over year.
Worry ifAerospace segment sales growth falls below 21% year over year.
Why it matters: New debt can affect financial stability. It may change how capital is used.
Worry ifDebt issuance leads to a credit rating upgrade.
Less concerning ifDebt issuance results in a credit rating downgrade.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is vital for funding growth and dividends. It shows financial health.
Watch forFree cash flow improves to over $100M in Q4.
Also watch forFree cash flow declines below $50M in Q4.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $363 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,367 loss on $10,000 · 23.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.