Weyerhaeuser (WY)
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.75+5.63%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
WY — officer change
Dated 2026-05-20
The company amended and restated its deferred compensation plan.
Why it matters: The $146 million sale would show progress in trimming non-core land. A delay would leave that cash unavailable for other uses.
Supportive ifWeyerhaeuser confirms the sale of about 81,000 Arkansas acres closed by December 31, 2026. The sale price was $146 million.
Worry ifThe sale does not close by December 31, 2026, or Weyerhaeuser reports that the deal ended.
Why it matters: The first facility is part of the company’s growth plan. A new site or clear build progress would mark a next step beyond plans.
Supportive ifWeyerhaeuser reports that construction is under way at McComb. It also names a site for another biocarbon facility.
Worry ifWeyerhaeuser reports a pause or delay in McComb construction. Or it gives no new site details by its January 22, 2027 earnings report.
Why it matters: The company tied a Q4 drop to the timing and mix of land sales. A smaller drop would point to better results than its outlook.
Worry ifQ4 Strategic Land Solutions Adjusted EBITDA is about $41 million. That is near $45 million below Q3’s $86 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 Strategic Land Solutions Adjusted EBITDA is more than $41 million. The drop from Q3 is less than $45 million.
Why it matters: Wood Products EBITDA fell from $129 million in Q2 to $91 million in Q3. The company also sees a further Q4 decline, excluding lumber and panel price changes.
Worry ifQ4 Wood Products Adjusted EBITDA is below $91 million. This excludes changes in average lumber and oriented strand board prices.
Less concerning ifQ4 Wood Products Adjusted EBITDA is at least $91 million. This excludes changes in average lumber and oriented strand board prices.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $273 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,125 loss on $10,000 · 31.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.