Weyerhaeuser (WY)
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.02-0.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 28.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
WY — officer change
Dated 2026-05-20
The company amended and restated its deferred compensation plan.
Why it matters: Better sector performance could help Weyerhaeuser grow and increase value.
Supportive ifSector performance shows signs of recovery or growth.
Worry ifSector performance keeps getting worse or stays the same.
Why it matters: Selling timberland helps improve the portfolio and supports growth plans.
Supportive ifThey announce timberland sales of more than 20,000 acres.
Worry ifNo new timberland sales are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This facility will help future earnings grow a lot.
Supportive ifThe facility is done and ready to start operations.
Worry ifThe new wood products facility is delayed. It will take longer to finish.
Why it matters: Housing demand affects the need for wood fiber. This changes prices and business performance.
Watch forForecasts for U.S. housing demand increase by more than 5% for the next year.
Also watch forForecasts for U.S. housing demand decrease by more than 5% for the next year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $249 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,836 loss on $10,000 · 18.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finishing the program shows strong cash flow and a focus on shareholder returns.
Supportive ifThe $1 billion share buyback program is complete.
Worry ifThere is a delay or cut in the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Opening this facility will increase capacity. It will help growth plans.
Supportive ifThe Tennessee facility is set to open by late 2026.
Worry ifThe opening of the Tennessee facility is delayed past late 2026.
Why it matters: Matching Q1 Adjusted EBITDA shows steady earnings. This helps reach growth goals.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is about $308 million or more.
Worry ifQ2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is much lower than $308 million.
Why it matters: Good sales can help with money management and focus on main work.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of more good sales after the recent Oregon deal.
Worry ifNot being able to complete more sales as planned.
Why it matters: Strong performance in this segment can drive overall growth and meet long-term targets.
Supportive ifClimate Solutions Adjusted EBITDA is at least $250 million for the year.
Worry ifClimate Solutions Adjusted EBITDA is less than $200 million this year.
Why it matters: This goal is important for long-term growth. It shows management cares about better performance.
Supportive ifManagement reports big progress in growth plans. These plans help reach the $1.5 billion goal.
Worry ifNo updates or problems reported on plans to reach the $1.5 billion goal.
Why it matters: Similar earnings show steady performance. This backs management's growth plans.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 earnings reported at or near $156 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings fall well below $156 million.
Why it matters: This would confirm management's outlook for stable performance and growth in earnings.
Supportive ifThird quarter Adjusted EBITDA was $310 million or more.
Worry ifThird quarter Adjusted EBITDA was less than $310 million.
Why it matters: Management raised the 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $450 million. This shows stable growth.
Supportive if2026 Adjusted EBITDA was $450 million or more in Q3 results.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $425 million in Q3 results.
Why it matters: Management noted recent increases in lumber pricing. Trends here can signal market demand strength.
Supportive ifLumber prices increase by more than 5% in Q3 compared to Q2.
Worry ifLumber prices decrease or remain flat in Q3 compared to Q2.