Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Weyerhaeuser (WY)
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.75+5.63%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.70 → 0.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase Adjusted EBITDA by $1.5 billion by 2030 | The company targets $1.5 billion more EBITDA by 2030. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA growth falls short of adding $1.5 billion by 2030 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a timber and real estate business with a multi-year view shaped by operating performance and sector conditions. The thesis is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium; recent performance is strong while earnings quality remains fragile.
Valuation is neutral in the evidence, and WY carries a 1.26 premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear ahead of the model’s view; the priced-in assessment is nevertheless tagged justified, with low fragility.
Near term, recent earnings were in line after two prior beats, and the latest quarter’s Adjusted EBITDA was higher year over year but lower than the prior quarter. Timberlands sales and contribution to pretax earnings improved quarter over quarter, while progress toward the 2030 EBITDA target is not established by the supplied evidence.
The multi-year view depends partly on whether WY can deliver sustained operational gains and make progress toward its 2030 EBITDA target. A reversal of recently raised guidance would hurt credibility, while Fed rate cuts could help rate-sensitive real estate; weakness among sector bellwethers could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, WY’s long-term thesis looks intact but still depends on execution, with mixed sequential results and fragile earnings quality limiting confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Weyerhaeuser's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth in next 12 months. |
| Intact |
| Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA at approximately $425 million | Strategic Land Solutions aims for $425 million EBITDA in 2026, showing solid segment growth. | Intact | Segment Adjusted EBITDA falls significantly below $425 million in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain valuation multiple closer to peer median PE of ~16 | A supporting condition in Weyerhaeuser's published investment case. The stated target is PE ratio below 30 (toward peer median 16). | Intact | PE remains above 50 without earnings growth support | P/E (TTM): 94.57x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202694.5652 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.71 → $0.43 · observed estimates
$7.63B → $7.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.71 | $7,626,311,001 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.67 | $7,574,877,840 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.67 | $7,574,877,840 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.71 | $7,574,926,736 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.71 | $7,574,926,736 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.67 | $7,584,987,840 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.67 | $7,584,987,840 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.67 | $7,584,987,840 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.72 | $7,665,850,060 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.72 | $7,698,687,818 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.66 | $7,620,273,150 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.72 | $7,698,687,818 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.67 | $7,661,929,100 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.72 | $7,698,687,818 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.72 | $7,698,687,818 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.72 | $7,698,687,818 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.72 | $7,698,687,818 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.68 | $7,711,539,100 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.68 | $7,711,539,100 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.72 | $7,698,687,818 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.72 | $7,698,687,818 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.72 | $7,698,687,818 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.72 | $7,698,687,818 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.72 | $7,698,687,818 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.72 | $7,698,687,818 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.73 | $7,751,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.73 | $7,751,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.73 | $7,751,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.73 | $7,751,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.73 | $7,751,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.73 | $7,751,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.73 | $7,751,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.73 | $7,751,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.73 | $7,751,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.73 | $7,751,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.73 | $7,751,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.73 | $7,751,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.73 | $7,751,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.73 | $7,751,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.73 | $7,751,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.72 | $7,795,934,360 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.70 | $7,780,752,542 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.70 | $7,780,752,542 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.70 | $7,780,752,542 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.70 | $7,780,752,542 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.70 | $7,780,752,542 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.69 | $7,768,781,149 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.69 | $7,796,235,494 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.66 | $7,772,690,040 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.66 | $7,772,690,040 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.66 | $7,772,690,040 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.66 | $7,772,690,040 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.63 | $7,748,280,949 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.63 | $7,740,219,494 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.62 | $7,741,411,732 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.62 | $7,741,411,732 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.62 | $7,741,411,732 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.59 | $7,714,411,732 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.59 | $7,714,411,732 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.59 | $7,714,411,732 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.59 | $7,714,411,732 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.59 | $7,714,411,732 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.59 | $7,714,411,732 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.59 | $7,714,411,732 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.59 | $7,714,411,732 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.59 | $7,714,411,732 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.59 | $7,714,411,732 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.55 | $7,713,316,302 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.55 | $7,713,316,302 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.55 | $7,713,316,302 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.53 | $7,684,750,432 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.53 | $7,684,750,432 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.53 | $7,684,750,432 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.44 | $7,581,580,264 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.43 | $7,559,240,148 | 8 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 5 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Jan 22, 2027
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.