Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$82.38+6.05%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.00 → 4.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WYNN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share | It pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.25 quarterly | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In Macau, we saw a meaningful increase in gaming volumes year-over-year alongside healthy market share, and we were pleased to increase the dividend from Wynn Macau, Limited, a reflection of the strong free cash flow the business is generating.” “Wynn Al Marjan Island Development During the first quarter of 2026, the Company contributed $100.1 million of cash to the 40%-owned joint venture that is constructing the Wynn Al Marjan Island development in the UAE, bringing our life-to-date cash contributions to the project to $1.01 billion.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical casino and resort business with a major development project, rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and risk has recently moved from moderate to elevated.
Valuation is described as aligned with the available expectations, with no strong gap between them. WYNN carries a premium versus peers, while the priced-in assessment says fragility is low because the broader combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence is not present.
Near term, recent financial performance is in the top half of the industry, but the evidence also notes misses across recent quarters and elevated risk. Management remains on track with Wynn Al Marjan Island funding and its stated 2027 opening, while the dividend has been consistent; share repurchases are mixed as remaining authorization has declined.
The multi-year view depends in part on continued construction progress and funding for Wynn Al Marjan Island, with management currently targeting a September 2027 opening. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while results and guidance from sector peers such as LVS, DKNG, and MGM could signal whether the sector backdrop is strengthening or weakening.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis remains intact but carries elevated risk: project execution and sector conditions matter, and recent performance has not removed concern about uneven results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain or improve operating income above $280M quarterly | A primary condition in Wynn Resorts's published investment case. The stated target is >=282.6 million USD. | Improving | Operating income falls below $268.6M quarterly | Operating income: $297.588M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=282.6 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026297,588,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 5% or higher | A primary condition in Wynn Resorts's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.8% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 4.8% next year | Revenue growth: 6.86% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4.8% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 20266.855576 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Advance Wynn Al Marjan Island development with quarterly contributions near $100M | The company is progressing on its Wynn Al Marjan Island project with $1.01B invested. | Under Pressure | Quarterly investment in Wynn Al Marjan Island falls below $50M | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 5 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Wynn Al Marjan Island Development During the second quarter of 2026, the Company contributed $48.1 million of cash to the 40%-owned joint venture that is constructing the Wynn Al Marjan Island development in the UAE, bringing our life-to-date cash contributions to the project to $1.06 billion.” “Wynn Resorts, alongside our partners in Ras Al Khaimah, are now pleased to announce that Wynn Al Marjan Island, the most exciting integrated resort to be developed in over a decade, will open its doors to guests in September of 2027."” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.14 → $4.39 · observed estimates
$7.77B → $7.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.14 | $7,772,534,290 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.02 | $7,802,000,380 | 9 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.02 | $7,802,000,380 | 9 / 18 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.09 | $7,763,089,206 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.09 | $7,763,089,206 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.02 | $7,798,575,820 | 9 / 18 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.09 | $7,759,463,182 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.02 | $7,795,564,710 | 9 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.09 | $7,759,463,182 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.09 | $7,756,273,535 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.02 | $7,795,564,710 | 9 / 18 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.02 | $7,795,564,710 | 9 / 18 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.02 | $7,797,009,160 | 9 / 18 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.02 | $7,797,009,160 | 9 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.09 | $7,740,431,578 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.09 | $7,740,431,578 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.09 | $7,740,431,578 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.00 | $7,779,644,360 | 9 / 18 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.09 | $7,740,431,578 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.09 | $7,740,431,578 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.09 | $7,740,431,578 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.09 | $7,740,431,578 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.09 | $7,740,431,578 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.09 | $7,740,431,578 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.09 | $7,740,431,578 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.00 | $7,730,101,781 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.00 | $7,730,101,781 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.00 | $7,730,101,781 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.00 | $7,730,101,781 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.00 | $7,730,101,781 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.00 | $7,730,101,781 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.00 | $7,730,101,781 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.00 | $7,730,101,781 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.00 | $7,730,101,781 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.00 | $7,730,078,718 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.00 | $7,730,078,718 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.00 | $7,730,078,718 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.00 | $7,730,078,718 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.00 | $7,730,078,718 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.02 | $7,735,548,259 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.02 | $7,735,548,259 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.02 | $7,735,548,259 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.02 | $7,735,548,259 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.02 | $7,735,548,259 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.02 | $7,735,548,259 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.02 | $7,735,548,259 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.02 | $7,735,526,064 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.02 | $7,735,526,064 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.02 | $7,735,526,064 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.00 | $7,728,598,233 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.00 | $7,728,598,233 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.00 | $7,728,598,233 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.00 | $7,728,598,233 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.00 | $7,728,598,233 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.00 | $7,728,598,233 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.00 | $7,728,598,233 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.00 | $7,728,598,233 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.00 | $7,728,598,233 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.00 | $7,728,598,233 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.00 | $7,728,598,233 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.00 | $7,728,598,233 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.00 | $7,725,918,891 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.00 | $7,725,918,891 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.00 | $7,725,918,891 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.00 | $7,725,918,891 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.00 | $7,725,918,891 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.00 | $7,725,918,891 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.00 | $7,725,936,218 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.00 | $7,725,936,218 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.00 | $7,725,936,218 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.00 | $7,725,936,218 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.00 | $7,725,936,218 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.00 | $7,725,936,218 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.00 | $7,725,936,218 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.99 | $7,723,679,434 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.97 | $7,714,669,224 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.97 | $7,714,669,224 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.94 | $7,714,669,224 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.94 | $7,714,669,224 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.94 | $7,714,669,224 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.83 | $7,697,278,427 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.80 | $7,686,068,638 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.80 | $7,686,068,638 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.80 | $7,686,068,638 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.73 | $7,676,937,059 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.73 | $7,676,937,059 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.53 | $7,651,720,700 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.39 | $7,638,790,479 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.39 | $7,628,511,531 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.39 | $7,628,511,531 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.39 | $7,618,569,426 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.39 | $7,618,569,426 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.39 | $7,618,569,426 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.39 | $7,618,569,426 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.39 | $7,618,569,426 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.39 | $7,618,569,426 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.39 | $7,618,569,426 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.39 | $7,618,569,426 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.39 | $7,618,569,426 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.39 | $7,618,569,426 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.39 | $7,618,009,155 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.39 | $7,605,061,786 | 9 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.