ExxonMobil (XOM)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-07-07
$141.69+3.85%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $141.69. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $142 XOM trades at 22× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median, but our blended $122 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well below the analyst range. Analysts target $153–$185. Note: our $122 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($153–$185). Not investment advice.
$153.00 – $185.00 (median $177.50) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 8% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 1.4 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $7.85/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $177.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $19.23 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $94.50 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $122.85 | 8.5 | 15.53 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $75.53 | 16.9 | 4.47 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $152.58 | 23.9 | 6.39 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $125.29 | 1.6 | 79.54 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $39.57 | 6.2 | 6.39 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $65.18 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $128.83 | 20.2 | 6.39 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $148.79 | 23.9 | 6.23 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $24.29 | 16.9 | 1.44 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $298.84 | 23.9 | 12.52 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $166.88 | 1.6 | 105.95 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 3Y | $77.50 | 6.2 | 12.52 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $252.33 | 20.2 | 12.52 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $360.29 | 23.9 | 15.09 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $201.19 | 1.6 | 127.73 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $93.44 | 6.2 | 15.09 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $304.22 | 20.2 | 15.09 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.