ExxonMobil (XOM)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$159.47-1.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XOM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XOM — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-28
Other Events. On August 28, 2026, XTO Energy Inc. (“ XTO ”), a Delaware corporation and a wholly-owned subsidiary of ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation, a Texas corporation (the “ Company ”), issued notices (the “ Redemption Notices ”) to holders of XTO’s 6.10% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “ 2036 Notes ”), 6.75% Senior Notes due 2037 (the “ 2037 Notes ”) and 6.375% Senior Notes due 2038 (the “ 2038 Notes ” and together with the 2036 Notes and the 2037 Notes, the “ Notes ”) calling for redemption (…
Why it matters: Progress toward $20 billion in cost savings shows better operations and smart spending.
Supportive ifExxonMobil reports achieving at least $15 billion in structural cost savings by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifExxonMobil reports structural cost savings of less than $14 billion by the end of Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$103 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $253 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,065 loss on $10,000 · 20.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps ExxonMobil return cash to shareholders and invest in growth.
Supportive ifQ3 cash flow from operations is over $23 billion.
Worry ifQ3 cash flow from operations is under $20 billion.
Why it matters: More oil production in Guyana helps ExxonMobil grow. It also helps with issues in other places.
Supportive ifProduction from Guyana reported above 900K barrels per day.
Worry ifProduction from Guyana reported below 900K barrels per day.
Why it matters: More LNG exports can increase revenue. They can also show success in new projects.
Supportive ifExxonMobil reports a 5% increase in U.S. LNG exports by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo increase in LNG exports reported by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More production from these areas boosts revenue and helps meet growth goals.
Supportive ifProduction from Guyana exceeds 1 million barrels per day.
Worry ifProduction from Guyana falls below 900,000 barrels per day.
Why it matters: Finishing the share buyback plan shows strong use of money. It shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifExxonMobil will finish $20 billion in share buybacks in 2026.
Worry ifThe company fails to repurchase at least $10 billion in shares by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: The 5% rise in LNG exports shows ExxonMobil's growth plan is working.
Supportive ifExxonMobil reports a 5% increase in U.S. LNG exports in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifExxonMobil reports no increase or a decrease in U.S. LNG exports in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Middle East events have affected production. This could impact earnings and operations.
Worry ifEvents in the Middle East caused production disruptions. This cut oil-equivalent barrels by more than 20%.
Less concerning ifProduction levels stay the same or go up, even with Middle East disruptions.
Why it matters: Meeting this goal would show good use of money. It shows a focus on returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifShare buybacks are set to reach $20 billion by the end of the year.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall short of $15 billion by year-end.
Why it matters: A miss shows ongoing problems in keeping earnings strong during market ups and downs.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows earnings below $14.5 billion, which was reported for Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings over $14.5 billion show strong performance.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level would show strong performance. It would support growth plans and show good management.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings reported above $14.5 billion.
Worry ifQ3 earnings fall below $14.5 billion.
Why it matters: Updates on this plan show management cares about giving value to shareholders. It shows confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifThey announced share repurchases of at least $10 billion by year-end 2026.
Worry ifNo major share repurchases were announced by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Reaching this target would improve profits and efficiency. It shows management is focused on cost control.
Supportive ifManagement says they will save $20 billion in costs by 2030.
Worry ifSavings will be less than $20 billion by 2030.
Why it matters: Successful startup would boost production capacity and support revenue growth. It is a key part of ExxonMobil's growth strategy.
Supportive ifGuyana FPSO starts production as planned in Q4 2026.
Worry ifProduction startup is delayed beyond Q4 2026.