ExxonMobil (XOM)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$169.44-4.52%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XOM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XOM — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-28
Other Events. On August 28, 2026, XTO Energy Inc. (“ XTO ”), a Delaware corporation and a wholly-owned subsidiary of ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation, a Texas corporation (the “ Company ”), issued notices (the “ Redemption Notices ”) to holders of XTO’s 6.10% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “ 2036 Notes ”), 6.75% Senior Notes due 2037 (the “ 2037 Notes ”) and 6.375% Senior Notes due 2038 (the “ 2038 Notes ” and together with the 2036 Notes and the 2037 Notes, the “ Notes ”) calling for redemption (…
Why it matters: The company says cost savings are a lasting source of earnings strength. Progress toward $20 billion tests that plan.
Supportive ifA company update reports total structural cost savings of at least $20 billion by 2030.
Worry ifA company update reports total structural cost savings of less than $20 billion at the end of 2030.
Why it matters: Year-to-date 2026 production was below the year-ago level. A rise would show that new output is offsetting lost volumes.
Watch forA later 2026 report shows year-to-date upstream production above the same period in 2025.
Also watch forA later 2026 report shows year-to-date upstream production at or below the same period in 2025.
Why it matters: The new vessel is set to add 250,000 barrels per day of capacity. On-time output would support growth in advantaged production.
Supportive ifExxonMobil reports that its fifth Guyana FPSO began production in 4Q26. It added capacity.
Worry ifThe start slips beyond 4Q26, or ExxonMobil reports that the vessel has not begun production.
Why it matters: ExxonMobil said it plans $20 billion in repurchases in 2026, if market conditions are reasonable. The year-end total will show its progress.
Watch forThe 2026 full-year report shows share repurchases of $20 billion or more.
Also watch forThe 2026 full-year report shows share repurchases below $20 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$98 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $285 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,065 loss on $10,000 · 20.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.