ExxonMobil (XOM)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$159.47-1.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
Exxon is growing oil and gas production with new projects. It plans to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2026. LNG exports rose 5% in early 2026. Profit margins remain solid despite cost pressures.
Regulatory and legal challenges could raise costs and limit growth. Margins have already been cut in half. Share repurchases depend on stable market conditions.
The price is about 16% above our fair value near $121. Analysts expect about 10% revenue growth. Our fair value is well below the Street median.
Breaks if: Repurchases fall significantly below $20 billion in 2026
Continue share repurchase program on pace to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a large-cap energy company with a focus on cost savings and production growth. The current thesis state is weakened, reflecting recent earnings misses and a shift in sector dynamics.
The market appears to price XOM as relatively cheap compared to its peers, but there is a low expectations gap. The valuation is justified, considering the company's execution quality and the current turbulent sector environment.
Fundamentals are likely to remain neutral in the near term, given the company's recent earnings miss and legal challenges. However, management is on track with cost savings and production growth initiatives, which may support future performance.
The thesis hinges on external factors such as inflation trends and the performance of sector peers like CVX and SHEL. Additionally, any cuts to guidance from management could negatively impact sentiment and expectations.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change reflects a decline in the company's standing. Additionally, the latest earnings report missed expectations, further challenging the outlook.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: LNG exports fail to grow by 5% relative to 2025
Grow U.S. LNG exports by 5% through operational milestones such as Golden Pass Train 1 startup.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Golden Pass LNG Train 1 startup increased U.S. LNG exports by 5% relative to 2025. Management is delivering on this growth milestone with operational progress.
“Achieved first LNG at Golden Pass Train 1, increasing U.S. LNG exports by 5%.”
“Golden Pass LNG Train 1 achieved mechanical completion late in the year, with first cargoes expected in the first quarter.”
Breaks if: Production falls below 4.6 million barrels per day
Breaks if: Margins fall below half of recent levels
Over the next 1 to 3 years, XOM's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges and execute on its strategic priorities. Not investment advice.