Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ExxonMobil (XOM)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$169.44-4.52%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.29 → 12.15 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for XOM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Repurchase $20B of shares in 2026 | It plans to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2026. | Intact | Repurchases fall significantly below $20 billion in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Markets will change, but we're positioned to continue supplying the energy and products the world needs while delivering growth in long-term value for our shareholders."” “Industry-leading shareholder distributions of $9.2 billion included $4.3 billion of dividends and $4.9 billion of share repurchases, on pace with plans to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large energy business with a sector tailwind and a multi-year growth plan, rather than a clear turnaround. The thesis is in a watch state: the latest earnings beat improved the signal, but recent financial performance remains below its industry group.
The valuation evidence is mixed: XOM is described as cheap versus peers, but the priced-in tag is stretched and valuation rose notably in the latest period. The expectations gap is modest, so the evidence does not point to a large cushion for weak execution.
Near term, the latest earnings beat is a positive change after a recent miss, but the company has a run of consecutive misses in the evidence and performance remains below its industry group. Over the multi-year view, advantaged volume growth and project start-ups support the plan, though year-to-date Upstream production is below the year-ago level; cost savings and capital-spending progress still need monitoring.
The next call matters: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued guidance and execution on projects would support the thesis. Energy sector results are another swing factor, since continued strength among bellwethers could sustain the sector tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, XOM’s thesis depends on converting project growth and cost plans into stronger operating delivery, with sector conditions adding support or pressure. The evidence is mixed, and the latest earnings beat has not erased execution concerns. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Increase U.S. LNG exports by 5% relative to 2025 | LNG exports rose 5% in early 2026. | Intact | LNG exports fail to grow by 5% relative to 2025 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow production through advantaged volumes and project start-ups | A primary condition in ExxonMobil's published investment case. The stated target is Net production at or above 4.6 million barrels per day. | Intact | Production falls below 4.6 million barrels per day | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain profit margins near recent levels despite cost pressures | Profit margins remain solid despite cost pressures. | Improving | Margins fall below half of recent levels | Net margin: 13.62% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Profit margins do not fall below half of recent levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Nov 2, 202613.620056 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.61 → $12.15 · observed estimates
$383.77B → $418.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.61 | $383,766,720,670 | 23 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.73 | $383,766,720,670 | 24 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.73 | $383,766,720,670 | 24 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.67 | $377,692,719,064 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.67 | $377,692,719,064 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.59 | $390,930,474,890 | 23 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.59 | $390,930,474,890 | 23 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.68 | $376,076,582,939 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.68 | $376,076,582,939 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.58 | $389,029,167,200 | 23 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.55 | $361,431,866,894 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.55 | $361,431,866,894 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.55 | $361,431,866,894 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.64 | $393,924,940,570 | 23 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.55 | $361,431,866,894 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.55 | $361,431,866,894 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.55 | $361,431,866,894 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.55 | $361,431,866,894 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.55 | $361,431,866,894 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.55 | $361,431,866,894 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.55 | $361,431,866,894 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.55 | $361,431,866,894 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.55 | $361,431,866,894 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.55 | $361,431,866,894 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.55 | $361,431,866,894 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.68 | $382,991,280,572 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.68 | $382,991,280,572 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.68 | $382,991,280,572 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.68 | $382,991,280,572 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.68 | $382,991,280,572 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.65 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.65 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.65 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.65 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.65 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.65 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.65 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.65 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.65 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.65 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.77 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.77 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.77 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.77 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.77 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.78 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.79 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.79 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.79 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.79 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.79 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.79 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.79 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.79 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.79 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.79 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.79 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.79 | $384,485,751,160 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.78 | $385,180,398,219 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.82 | $387,253,408,336 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.82 | $387,253,408,336 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.89 | $392,169,714,219 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.09 | $397,898,157,299 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.09 | $397,898,157,299 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.09 | $397,898,157,299 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.14 | $398,106,569,064 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.14 | $398,106,569,064 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.14 | $398,106,569,064 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.21 | $397,783,326,787 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.21 | $397,783,333,770 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.26 | $397,783,333,770 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.29 | $397,783,333,770 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.29 | $397,783,333,770 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.36 | $400,791,569,064 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.36 | $400,791,569,064 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.36 | $400,791,569,064 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.36 | $400,791,569,064 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.36 | $400,791,569,064 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.35 | $400,791,569,064 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.35 | $400,791,569,064 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.35 | $400,791,569,064 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.47 | $401,539,836,312 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.54 | $404,402,365,724 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.54 | $404,402,365,724 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.81 | $409,568,537,438 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.81 | $409,568,537,438 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.21 | $413,838,774,938 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.27 | $416,937,041,572 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.27 | $416,937,041,572 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.32 | $417,339,354,072 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.32 | $417,339,354,072 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.32 | $417,339,354,072 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.32 | $417,339,354,072 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.32 | $417,339,354,072 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.26 | $417,339,347,389 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.08 | $414,567,150,484 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.08 | $414,567,150,484 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.10 | $418,090,032,837 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.10 | $418,090,032,837 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.10 | $418,090,032,837 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.33 | $426,057,892,637 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.15 | $418,236,902,906 | 15 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 17 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.