Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
XPEL, Inc. (XPEL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$42.13-0.85%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.84 → 2.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for XPEL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand manufacturing capacity in China | A supporting condition in XPEL, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is On track with expansion plans. | Intact | Expansion plans delayed or scaled back | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
XPEL is a growth business whose thesis depends on continued revenue expansion and delivery on capacity plans. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance strong, but confidence is medium and earnings quality is fragile.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and a sizable expectations gap. The evidence flags this premium as unjustified given weak execution quality, so continued growth and reliable delivery matter to the market’s assumptions.
Near-term results show revenue growth, while China revenue has expanded as management pursued added manufacturing capacity. The San Antonio facility acquisition is progressing, though the sharp rise in assets and liabilities points to ongoing integration; a guidance cut remains a meaningful risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on maintaining revenue growth, expanding China capacity, and integrating the San Antonio facility without weakening execution. Sector bellwethers’ earnings and guidance may also signal whether the current sector tailwind persists or fades.
For the 1-3 year view, XPEL has a growing business and an intact thesis, but its expensive valuation leaves little room for weak execution, especially if guidance is cut. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in XPEL, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=52%. |
| Improving |
| Gross margin falls below 52% by FY2028 |
Gross margin: 44.14% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=52%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202644.137488 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin stays above 20% by FY2028 | A primary condition in XPEL, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=20%. | Improving | Operating margin falls below 20% by FY2028 | Operating margin: 16.23% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202616.228251 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $124 million in FY2025 | XPEL grows revenue about 13% yearly. | Intact | Revenue falls below $117 million in FY2025 | Revenue: $143.053M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$124 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026143,053,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete acquisition and expansion of San Antonio facility | It completed a key acquisition in San Antonio. | Intact | Acquisition integration fails or is delayed | Acquisition completed May 2026; no integration delays reported May 2026 8-K confirms acquisition completion. Recent news focuses on earnings and Brazil expansion, with no negative integration signals. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.74 → $2.84 · observed estimates
$0.58B → $0.59B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.74 | $581,744,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.74 | $581,744,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.74 | $581,744,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.74 | $581,744,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.74 | $581,744,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.74 | $581,744,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.74 | $581,744,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.74 | $581,744,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.74 | $581,744,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.74 | $581,744,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.74 | $581,744,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.74 | $581,744,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.74 | $581,744,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.74 | $581,744,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.75 | $585,303,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.75 | $585,303,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.70 | $585,303,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.75 | $585,303,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.75 | $585,303,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.75 | $585,303,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.75 | $585,303,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.75 | $585,303,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.75 | $585,303,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.75 | $585,303,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.75 | $585,303,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.84 | $588,537,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.