XPEL, Inc. (XPEL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$51.45+1.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XPEL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $51 the market pays 26× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 24× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $28 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $66 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| graham number | 12M | $22.77 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $27.07 | 13.5 | 2.00 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $11.74 | 0.6 | 18.38 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $15.81 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 15% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 2.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.31/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $47.95 |
| 24.0 |
| 2.00 |
| TTM |
| high |
| triangulated | 12M | $27.74 | 13.5 | 2.05 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $47.34 | 13.5 | 3.50 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $16.73 | 0.6 | 26.19 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $83.85 | 24.0 | 3.50 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $59.97 | 13.5 | 4.43 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $21.19 | 0.6 | 33.18 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $106.23 | 24.0 | 4.43 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |