XPEL, Inc. (XPEL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$51.45+1.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XPEL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 82.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 71.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XPEL — officer change
Dated 2026-07-30
Director — Mark Thornton: Mr. Thornton resigned due to a new policy at his employer that prohibits him from serving on the Board.
Why it matters: A successful integration will boost XPEL's manufacturing and efficiency. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifThe San Antonio facility will be fully running by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThere may be delays in integration or issues with operations.
Why it matters: Hitting this margin target shows XPEL can control costs while growing. It is key for profit.
Supportive ifManagement says they are getting closer to mid-20% EBITDA margins by 2028.
Worry ifManagement lowers their margin goals.
Why it matters: A good margin would mean that recent manufacturing investments are paying off.
Supportive ifBy mid-2027, margins from the San Antonio and China facilities should grow.
Worry ifIf margins do not improve by mid-2027, it may mean poor investments.
Why it matters: Better gross margins show improved cost management and pricing power. This is key for long-term profit goals.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 45% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 43.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: If operating expenses grow faster than revenue, it could hurt profit margins. This is a key measure of efficiency.
Worry ifOperating expenses grow more than 20% YoY while revenue growth is below 10%.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses grow less than 15% YoY while revenue growth stays above 10%.
Why it matters: This acquisition helps make more products and lowers risks. A good integration can help growth.
Supportive ifThe San Antonio facility deal is now done and operating.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in the acquisition or integration.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in demand. This would raise concerns about XPEL's future performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 10% year over year in the next earnings release.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above 10% year over year in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how fast the company is growing. If revenue hits this range, it means strong demand and good operations.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $139 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $137 million.
Why it matters: Sustained high growth in China signals successful market penetration and demand for products. This is vital for overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifChina revenue growth reported above 100% YoY in Q3.
Worry ifChina revenue growth reported below 50% YoY.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $412 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,179 loss on $10,000 · 31.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.