XPEL, Inc. (XPEL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$42.13-0.85%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XPEL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 49.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XPEL — officer change
Dated 2026-07-30
Director — Mark Thornton: Mr. Thornton resigned due to a new policy at his employer that prohibits him from serving on the Board.
Why it matters: The US made up 54.9% of Q2 sales, but growth was 11.7%. A decline in this market could hurt total sales.
Worry ifUS revenue falls year over year in a reported quarter.
Less concerning ifUS revenue grows year over year, at or above Q2's 11.7% rate.
Why it matters: Q3 results test the revenue pace after 14.7% growth in Q2. A miss would signal slower growth.
Watch forQ3 revenue is at least $139M, above the top of the outlook range.
Also watch forQ3 revenue is below $137M, under the bottom of the outlook range.
Why it matters: China sales more than doubled in Q2. A sharp slowdown could weaken the case for local production.
Watch forChina revenue grows more than 44% year over year in a reported quarter.
Also watch forChina revenue growth falls below 44% year over year or turns negative.
Why it matters: Gross margin rose from 42.9% in Q2 2025 to 44.1% in Q2 2026. A drop would reverse that gain.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin is below 44.1%.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin is at least 44.1%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $423 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,179 loss on $10,000 · 31.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: XPEL is spending heavily on new plants and space. The company ties these projects to its 2028 margin goal.
Worry ifReported operating margin falls below the Q2 level. No offset from the new facilities is stated.
Less concerning ifOperating margin stays above Q2's level as the facilities near use.