Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
XTI Aerospace Inc (XTIA)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.00-6.54%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for XTIA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve breakeven cash flow by Q3 2026 | Management plans to reach breakeven cash flow by Q3 2026. | Broken | cash flow remains negative beyond Q3 2026 | Cash from operations: $-10.554M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 20, 2026-10,554,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
XTIA is a speculative growth and execution story, not an established, profitable compounder. The multi-year view is on watch: management has made progress scaling Drone Nerds and reducing cash outflows, but recent results are weak and management execution is volatile.
The valuation evidence is mixed: XTIA is described as cheap versus peers, yet its premium to peers is 0.18 and the model has low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not show that expectations are unusually fragile.
Near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated, following repeated misses, and momentum has weakened. Revenue rose sequentially from the second quarter to preliminary third-quarter results, and reported cash outflows fell, but the 2026 revenue outlook was reset to $125 million to $130 million from $160 million or more. These gains in revenue and cost control remain mixed evidence because the company is still loss-making and has continued to address near-term liquidity needs.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether XTIA can grow Drone Nerds while controlling overhead and cash use, and whether it can deliver on its U.S.-based manufacturing plans. Near term, another guidance cut would add to the negative evidence; stronger results and guidance from industrial bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.
For the next 1 to 3 years, XTIA’s thesis remains dependent on execution: revenue growth and lower cash outflows are encouraging, but repeated misses, the outlook reset, and high business risk keep the evidence mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross margin is targeted at 19-21%, up from 18.6% in Q1. |
| Improving |
| gross margin falls below 17% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 17.39% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=19% and <=21%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 20, 202617.390366 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least $160 million revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in XTI Aerospace Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=160 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $120 million in FY26 | Revenue: $32.449M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=160 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 20, 202632,449,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.46 → $-0.29 · observed estimates
$0.18B → $0.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.46 | $184,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.29 | $142,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.29 | $142,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.29 | $142,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.29 | $142,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.29 | $142,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.29 | $142,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.29 | $142,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.29 | $142,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.29 | $142,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.29 | $142,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.29 | $142,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.29 | $142,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.29 | $142,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.