Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Yum! Brands (YUM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$166.09-0.13%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.22 → 6.92 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for YUM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective use of capital including share buybacks | It returns capital to shareholders through buybacks. | Intact | No buybacks or capital return increases in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
YUM is a durable-growth restaurant business, with expansion through new units as a clear part of the thesis. The thesis is intact, but management execution is mixed and core operating profit growth is behind its stated goal.
YUM carries a durable premium to peers, and its valuation has risen recently. The expectations gap is modestly negative, while the evidence rates the current pricing as justified and overall fragility as low.
Near term, unit growth is on track at about 5%, but system sales growth is slightly below management’s goal and core operating profit growth is further behind. A guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk, though the stated miss risk is low; the recent CEO transition adds uncertainty, while the completed acquisition is a positive event.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether YUM can close the gap between current sales and profit growth and its stated goals. Sector conditions matter too: continued strength among major restaurant peers could support the backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from them could remove that tailwind.
For the 1-to-3-year view, YUM’s expansion progress supports an intact thesis, but the premium valuation leaves execution on sales and profit growth as the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Yum! Brands's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY core operating profit growth. |
| Under Pressure |
| core operating profit growth falls below 4% YoY in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “LONG-TERM GROWTH ALGORITHM • The Company targets the following long-term financial performance metrics, first announced in 2022, that it believes it can achieve over an extended period of time, on average: • 5% Unit Growth • 7% System Sales Growth, excluding F/X; and • At least 8% Core Operating Profit Growth 1 1 At this time, we are unable to forecast any Special Items or any impact from changes in F/X rates, and therefore cannot provide an estimate of Operating Profit Growth on a GAAP basis.” “With iconic brands, unmatched global scale and significant development white space, we remain confident in our ability to deliver consistent earnings growth and create long-term shareholder value.”” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Achieve 7% system sales growth excluding FX | It aims for 7% system sales growth and 8% profit growth. | Intact | system sales growth falls below 4% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “LONG-TERM GROWTH ALGORITHM • The Company targets the following long-term financial performance metrics, first announced in 2022, that it believes it can achieve over an extended period of time, on average: • 5% Unit Growth • 7% System Sales Growth, excluding F/X; and • At least 8% Core Operating Profit Growth 1 1 At this time, we are unable to forecast any Special Items or any impact from changes in F/X rates, and therefore cannot provide an estimate of Operating Profit Growth on a GAAP basis.” “Taco Bell will continue building on this momentum, with differentiated value and innovation that resonate across all consumer groups.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Achieve 5% annual unit growth | A primary condition in Yum! Brands's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY unit growth. | Intact | unit growth falls below 3% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “priorities. In support of those priorities, KFC delivered record Q3 global gross unit development and continues to scale its new global strategy reflecting the brand’s ambition of being the most modern chicken QSR.” “LONG-TERM GROWTH ALGORITHM • The Company targets the following long-term financial performance metrics, first announced in 2022, that it believes it can achieve over an extended period of time, on average: • 5% Unit Growth • 7% System Sales Growth, excluding F/X; and • At least 8% Core Operating Profit Growth 1 1 At this time, we are unable to forecast any Special Items or any impact from changes in F/X rates, and therefore cannot provide an estimate of Operating Profit Growth on a GAAP basis.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.39 → $6.92 · observed estimates
$9.50B → $8.75B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.39 | $9,499,980,058 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.46 | $9,664,433,100 | 21 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.39 | $9,499,980,058 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.46 | $9,664,433,100 | 21 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.39 | $9,499,980,058 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.39 | $9,499,980,058 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.45 | $9,656,761,180 | 21 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.45 | $9,641,513,810 | 21 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.35 | $9,421,158,236 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.37 | $9,456,934,758 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.39 | $9,521,420,240 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.39 | $9,521,420,240 | 21 / 20 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.43 | $9,601,443,790 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.37 | $9,456,934,758 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.46 | $9,658,412,740 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.37 | $9,456,934,758 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.46 | $9,658,412,740 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.46 | $9,658,412,740 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.37 | $9,456,934,758 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.37 | $9,456,934,758 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.37 | $9,456,934,758 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.37 | $9,456,934,758 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.37 | $9,456,934,758 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.37 | $9,456,934,758 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.37 | $9,456,934,758 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.30 | $9,340,566,874 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.30 | $9,340,566,874 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.30 | $9,340,566,874 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.30 | $9,340,566,874 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.30 | $9,340,566,874 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.29 | $9,337,748,692 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.29 | $9,337,748,692 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.29 | $9,337,748,692 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.29 | $9,337,748,692 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.27 | $9,310,063,966 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.27 | $9,310,063,966 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.27 | $9,310,063,966 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.27 | $9,310,063,966 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.27 | $9,310,063,966 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.27 | $9,310,063,966 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.27 | $9,310,063,966 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.27 | $9,310,063,966 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.27 | $9,310,063,966 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.27 | $9,310,063,966 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.27 | $9,310,063,966 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.27 | $9,310,063,966 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.27 | $9,294,612,328 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.26 | $9,240,875,965 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.26 | $9,242,641,433 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.26 | $9,242,641,433 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.26 | $9,242,641,433 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.26 | $9,242,641,433 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.26 | $9,242,641,433 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.24 | $9,211,439,631 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.24 | $9,211,439,631 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.24 | $9,211,439,631 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.24 | $9,211,878,762 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.24 | $9,211,878,762 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.24 | $9,211,878,762 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.24 | $9,211,878,762 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.24 | $9,211,878,762 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.21 | $9,211,878,762 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.22 | $9,231,827,796 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.22 | $9,231,827,796 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.22 | $9,231,827,796 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.22 | $9,231,827,796 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.22 | $9,231,827,796 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.22 | $9,223,229,736 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.22 | $9,223,229,736 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.22 | $9,223,229,736 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.22 | $9,223,229,736 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.22 | $9,223,229,736 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.22 | $9,223,229,736 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.22 | $9,223,229,736 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.21 | $9,199,871,921 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.20 | $9,199,865,264 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.20 | $9,199,865,264 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.20 | $9,199,865,264 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.20 | $9,199,865,264 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.20 | $9,199,865,264 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.17 | $9,148,908,743 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.17 | $9,148,908,743 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.17 | $9,146,816,498 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.17 | $9,146,816,498 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.17 | $9,146,816,498 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.17 | $9,146,816,498 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.15 | $9,105,494,907 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.18 | $9,101,320,994 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.13 | $9,006,844,722 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.13 | $9,006,844,722 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.04 | $8,908,869,474 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.04 | $8,908,869,474 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.04 | $8,908,869,474 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.04 | $8,908,869,474 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.05 | $8,910,326,264 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.05 | $8,910,326,264 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.05 | $8,910,326,264 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.05 | $8,910,326,264 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.05 | $8,910,326,264 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.05 | $8,910,326,264 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.03 | $8,859,395,829 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.92 | $8,746,531,300 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-05 | $6.92 | $8,746,531,300 | 12 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 7 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.