Yum! Brands (YUM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$150.71-1.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · YUM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
YUM — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-01
CEO — Aaron Powell: The CEO of a major business unit (Pizza Hut) is resigning in connection with a corporate transaction, representing a significant management change.
Why it matters: A drop in same-store sales growth could signal weakening demand for Yum! Brands' products.
Worry ifQ2 same-store sales grew less than 5%.
Less concerning ifQ2 same-store sales growth reported at or above 5%.
Why it matters: This sale is key to Yum! Brands' strategy to focus on core businesses and enhance shareholder value.
Supportive ifThe sale closes as planned. Yum! gets about $1.5 billion from LongRange Capital.
Worry ifThe sale does not close on time. This is due to regulatory issues.
Why it matters: The $4 billion share buyback shows management's trust in future growth and returns.
Supportive ifYum! announces the start of share repurchases totaling at least $1 billion within six months.
Worry ifYum! delays or cancels share repurchase plans after the Pizza Hut sale.
Why it matters: Exceeding unit growth targets would show Yum! Brands is expanding effectively despite market headwinds.
Supportive ifReported unit growth in Q2 exceeds 5%.
Worry ifUnit growth reported below 5% in Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$105 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $237 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,392 loss on $10,000 · 13.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The sale of Pizza Hut will reshape Yum! Brands and could enhance focus on core brands.
Supportive ifThe divestiture closes successfully in Q3 2026, with Yum! receiving $2.3 billion net proceeds.
Worry ifThe divestiture faces delays or fails to close by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: KFC's performance is important for growth. If it stabilizes, it shows brand strength.
Supportive ifKFC same-store sales growth stabilizes at or above 2% over the next two quarters.
Worry ifKFC same-store sales growth drops below 2% for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Incentives tied to KFC's sales growth could enhance Yum!'s financial outlook.
Supportive ifYum! reports improved KFC sales growth rates in China.
Worry ifKFC sales growth rates in China decline or remain stagnant.
Why it matters: Growing digital sales is important for Yum!. It helps them meet changing customer needs and make more money.
Supportive ifDigital sales mix is over 65% next quarter. This shows strong use of the digital platform.
Worry ifDigital sales mix is under 60%. This shows slow progress in going digital.
Why it matters: Updates on the $4 billion share buyback could signal confidence in Yum!'s financial health.
Supportive ifYum! announces progress on the share repurchase program within the next quarter.
Worry ifYum! fails to initiate the share buyback or delays the program.
Why it matters: This growth shows strong consumer demand. It also supports management's focus on better restaurant profits.
Supportive ifSame-store sales growth exceeds 4% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSame-store sales growth remains below 4% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A higher mix of digital sales shows that the company is adapting well to change.
Supportive ifDigital system sales mix excluding Pizza Hut exceeds 60% in Q3.
Worry ifDigital system sales mix falls below 57% in Q3.
Why it matters: Sustained strong growth at Taco Bell supports overall sales momentum for Yum! Brands.
Supportive ifTaco Bell same-store sales growth exceeds 7% in the next quarter.
Worry ifTaco Bell same-store sales growth drops below 4% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Positive growth for Pizza Hut could indicate a turnaround for a struggling brand.
Supportive ifPizza Hut's sales at existing stores grew in Q2 2026.
Worry ifPizza Hut same-store sales growth remains negative for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: System sales growth is a key metric for Yum! Brands. It reflects overall business health and consumer demand.
Supportive ifQ3 system sales grew more than 7% from last year. This supports management's growth plan.
Worry ifQ3 system sales growth is below 5%. This shows possible problems with execution or market conditions.
Why it matters: This sale marks a key step in Yum!'s strategy to focus on core brands. It could impact future growth and profitability.
Supportive ifThe sale will close once all approvals are received. This must happen by September 30, 2026.
Worry ifThe sale faces delays or fails to close by the end of September 2026.
Why it matters: Same-store sales growth indicates how well the brands are performing in a tough market. Strong growth could signal resilience.
Supportive ifTaco Bell and KFC same-store sales growth exceeds 5% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSame-store sales growth for Taco Bell and KFC falls below 2% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A high digital sales mix shows Yum! is adapting to consumer trends. It can drive profitability and growth.
Supportive ifDigital sales mix exceeds 60% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDigital sales mix drops below 55% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in core operating profit is important for Yum!'s financial health. It shows good cost management.
Supportive ifCore operating profit growth exceeds 8% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCore operating profit growth remains below 5% in Q3 2026.