Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
Zscaler, Inc. (ZS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$224.44-0.29%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.60 → 5.60 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 25 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 24 to 25; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ZS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve non-GAAP EPS of about $4.10 in fiscal 2026 | EPS target is about $4.10 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $3.50 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Non-GAAP net income per share was $4.21, compared to $3.28 in fiscal 2025.” “• Non-GAAP net income per share of $4.86 to $4.90, assuming approximately 173 million fully diluted shares outstanding and a non-GAAP tax rate of 21%.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 24, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented technology investment, not a mature, profit-tested compounder: the evidence shows positive non-GAAP operating income and EPS, but describes earnings quality as loss-making. The multi-year thesis is on watch, with a recent shift from mixed to cautious and performance below its industry cohort.
The valuation is marked justified, with low fragility, but ZS carries a 2.89 premium versus peers and the valuation model has low confidence. The expectations gap is small at 0.01, so the evidence suggests limited room between current expectations and the model's view, without a clear basis to call the shares cheap or expensive overall.
In fiscal 2026, revenue grew 25% and reached $3.353 billion, while non-GAAP operating income and EPS exceeded management's stated goals. Near term, the September earnings miss and elevated risk temper that progress; the evidence gives a 27% miss probability and describes recent-quarter misses, including the latest quarter.
The main company-specific swing factor is whether execution remains consistent after the recent guidance raise; a reversal and guidance cut would damage credibility as well as weaken the outlook. Broader support could come from lower interest rates or stabilization among major technology companies, while the recent earnings miss remains a near-term concern.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ZS combines demonstrated growth and improving non-GAAP results with a recent miss, elevated risk, and a valuation premium to peers. The thesis depends on renewed execution and a steadier technology backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Increase non-GAAP operating income to about $757M in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Zscaler, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$757M. | Intact | Operating income stays negative or below $500M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Non-GAAP income from operations was $767.1 million, or 23% of revenue, compared to $580.1 million, or 22% of revenue, in fiscal 2025.” “• Non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 80% • Non-GAAP income from operations of $924 million to $932 million, growth of approximately 21%.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve about $3.33B revenue in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Zscaler, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.33B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $3.0B in FY26 | Revenue: $898.185M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.33B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 3, 2026898,185,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Full Year Fiscal 2026 Results • Revenue: Grew 25% year over year to $3,353 million.” “• Revenue of approximately $3.908 billion to $3.938 billion, growth of 16.6% to 17.5%.” Revenue was $898.185 million in 2026-Q4. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.38 → $5.60 · observed estimates
$4.54B → $4.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,671 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,671 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,671 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,671 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,671 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,671 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,672 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,672 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,672 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,672 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,672 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,672 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,672 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,672 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,672 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,672 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.38 | $4,541,642,672 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.37 | $4,538,710,360 | 13 / 31 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.37 | $4,538,710,360 | 13 / 33 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.37 | $4,538,710,360 | 13 / 33 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.37 | $4,538,710,360 | 13 / 33 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.37 | $4,538,710,360 | 13 / 33 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.37 | $4,538,929,380 | 13 / 33 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.37 | $4,538,929,380 | 13 / 34 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.37 | $4,538,929,380 | 13 / 34 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.37 | $4,538,929,380 | 13 / 34 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.37 | $4,538,935,940 | 13 / 34 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.37 | $4,538,935,940 | 13 / 34 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.37 | $4,538,935,940 | 13 / 34 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.37 | $4,539,057,627 | 13 / 34 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.37 | $4,539,057,627 | 13 / 34 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.37 | $4,539,057,627 | 13 / 34 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.47 | $4,547,848,688 | 13 / 34 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.60 | $4,566,063,400 | 21 / 28 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.60 | $4,566,063,400 | 21 / 28 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.60 | $4,566,063,400 | 21 / 28 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.60 | $4,564,987,684 | 21 / 29 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.60 | $4,564,987,684 | 21 / 29 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.60 | $4,565,339,368 | 22 / 30 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.60 | $4,565,347,476 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,542 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,542 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,542 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.60 | $4,565,671,263 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,390 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,390 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,390 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,390 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,390 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,390 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,390 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,390 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,390 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,390 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,889 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,889 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.60 | $4,565,672,889 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.60 | $4,565,680,783 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.60 | $4,565,680,783 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.60 | $4,565,680,783 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.60 | $4,565,680,783 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.60 | $4,565,680,783 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.60 | $4,565,680,783 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.60 | $4,565,680,783 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.60 | $4,565,680,783 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.60 | $4,565,680,783 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.58 | $4,567,099,481 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.60 | $4,568,582,908 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.60 | $4,568,598,731 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.60 | $4,568,598,731 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.60 | $4,568,598,731 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.60 | $4,568,598,732 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.60 | $4,568,598,732 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.60 | $4,568,598,732 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.60 | $4,568,598,732 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.60 | $4,568,598,732 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.60 | $4,568,598,731 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.60 | $4,568,598,731 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.60 | $4,568,598,731 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.60 | $4,568,621,847 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.60 | $4,568,621,847 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.60 | $4,568,621,847 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.60 | $4,568,621,847 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.60 | $4,568,621,847 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.60 | $4,568,621,847 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.60 | $4,568,621,847 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.60 | $4,568,621,847 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.60 | $4,568,621,847 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.60 | $4,568,625,022 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.60 | $4,568,625,022 | 25 / 32 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.60 | $4,568,625,022 | 25 / 32 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.60 | $4,568,625,022 | 25 / 32 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.60 | $4,568,625,022 | 25 / 32 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.60 | $4,568,625,022 | 25 / 32 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 36 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 26 recorded
13 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.