Zscaler, Inc. (ZS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$224.44-0.29%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ZS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
ZS — officer change
Dated 2026-09-24
Chief Revenue Officer — Mike Rich: The departure of the Chief Revenue Officer is an orderly succession with a named internal successor and a transition period, rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: The technology sector remains in a growth phase, but its trend is easing. A drop below its median would add pressure to Zscaler's slower growth plan.
Worry ifThe sector revenue growth measure falls below its median, as flagged in the sector outlook.
Less concerning ifThe sector revenue growth measure stays at or above its median.
Why it matters: Tackett took over global sales and go-to-market work on October 1. His first quarter offers a clear test of sales continuity.
Watch forIn its next earnings report, Zscaler meets or raises its FY2027 ARR outlook. It also reports continued large-deal activity.
Also watch forIn its next earnings report, Zscaler cuts its FY2027 ARR outlook or reports less large-deal activity.
Why it matters: Zscaler said it would cut about 3% of staff to free resources for AI and growth work. The next reports can show whether the plan holds.
Watch forZscaler reports that the staff cuts are complete, keeps the planned $30 million to $33 million charge, and maintains FY2027 guidance.
Also watch forZscaler reports added restructuring charges, delayed cuts, or a lower FY2027 outlook tied to the change.
Why it matters: ARR growth slowed to 25% in FY2026, and the FY2027 plan calls for 16.6% to 17.4% growth. A lower result would deepen that slowdown.
Worry ifFY2027 ARR growth is below 16.6%, or management cuts its ARR outlook below $4.396 billion.
Less concerning ifFY2027 ARR reaches at least $4.396 billion and grows at least 16.6% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$237 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $627 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,437 loss on $10,000 · 64.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Zscaler reaffirmed Q1 revenue guidance of $935 million to $939 million. Results below that range would miss its stated growth plan.
Worry ifQ1 FY2027 revenue is below $935 million. Or management cuts the quarter's revenue guidance below that level.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY2027 revenue is at least $935 million and management keeps its guidance range.
Why it matters: The company guides to a 23.0% to 23.5% margin. FY2026 free cash flow margin fell to 23% from 27%, while Q4 fell to 7%.
Worry ifFY2027 free cash flow margin is below 23.0%.
Less concerning ifFY2027 free cash flow margin is at least 23.0%, within or above the guided range.